Slack / Private Message Drop — page 47

[Robert Garry] *New coronavirus losing potency, top Italian doctor says* [2020-06-01 10:47:01] [Robert Garry] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-s ays-idUSKBN2370OQ [2020-06-01 11:10:16] [Kristian Andersen] So many requests about this today - such a waste of time... [2020-06-01 11:15:28] [Robert Garry] Don't know if you'll agree but I answered something like this:That's a set of very alarming statements in the Reuter's article. There is no evidence that SARS-CoV-2 is "losing it's potency" in Italy or anywhere else. This is not what happens over a short period of time in virus evolution. What has happened is that case numbers have dropped in Italy, no doubt because of "some of the most rigid lockdown restrictions introduced anywhere on the continent." "The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago." This is almost certainly due to the fact that in the early days of the outbreak in Italy a larger percentage of very sick individuals we tested by the qPCRS. As the mitigation kicked in a higher percentage of milder cases would be tested. Virus load correlates with severity. Here's one example: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30232-2/fulltext "The mean viral load of severe cases was around 60 times higher than that of mild cases, suggesting that higher viral loads might be associated with severe clinical outcomes." Anecdotes are not science and shouldn't drive public health policy - particularly during a pandemic. [2020-06-01 11:39:25] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah, basically my thinking - although I have decided not to comment... :wink: [2020-06-01 12:07:45] [Robert Garry] https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/ebola-congo-2nd-outbreak-ebola-reported-congo-who-says-n122122 6 Be prepared for ultimate SARS-Cov-2/Ebola virus/measles virus mash-up hysteria. [2020-06-01 19:35:40] [Eddie Holmes] https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/nih-halted-study-unveils-its-massive-analysis-bat-coronaviruses "We were going to do full genomes but our funding was cut" :hankey: [2020-06-01 19:36:55] [Kristian Andersen] "He acknowledged that such an effort would be very costly, but said that compared to the cost of a pandemic, "You're definitely getting a good return on investment."" https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/01/science/coronavirus-bats-wuhan.html [2020-06-01 19:37:07]