Slack / Private Message Drop — page 105

[2020-07-23 08:55:11] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah, it's unclear to me - definitely appear to be "not safe", but as you say - it could be even worse. I'm super worried this is going to be Trump's next political trick - he would have _no_ hesitation pushing a vaccine through where we have very little or no data on population-wide safety [2020-07-23 08:58:05] [Robert Garry] A small controlled trial of 300 people - maybe fewer- would get you the same information - does it work? you could have an answer in less than a month then move on to the next one if it doesn't. What are they telling these 30,000 people - go out to bars? try to get infected. Probably not, but if they are giving them the proper advice - mask up social distance etc - you should have VERY FEW infections in the 30,000. Who did the power calculation to get 30K? [2020-07-23 09:00:29] [Robert Garry] Population-wise safety another issue - I doubt that any of the 30,000 are in at risk groups - old - respiratory illness, obesity etc. [2020-07-23 09:00:50] [Kristian Andersen] Yup, very true - I'm just very worried that those 300 people wouldn't fully understand what they're signing up for. Need the safety data on the vaccine in any case, which already requires a lot of people - but I guess it depends on whether we want (a) safety, or (b) efficacy data first. If the latter, challenge trial makes sense. [2020-07-23 09:01:06] [Robert Garry] Yes - it's definitely Trumps next trick for sure.... [2020-07-23 09:02:17] [Kristian Andersen] He'd push it through - _even_ if we knew it was unsafe or even dangerous. No doubt. And that's bloody terrifying. [2020-07-23 09:02:48] [Robert Garry] Enough safety data should be there in the Phase I and II trials - you're right that the Moderna safety data is HIGHLY suspect. [2020-07-23 09:06:49] [Kristian Andersen] If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on ChAdOx1 and Sinovac - I'd forget anything RNA- or DNA-based for now - it's just too early for those platforms. [2020-07-23 09:08:44] [Robert Garry] "fully understand what they're signing up for" - lay it out for them - they might die. We've got a 1000 dying each day just in the US. Yes - some trial participants could die - I think it's less likely with the better treatment regiments - dexy, remdesivir if they get in trouble - give them Ho or Crowe's MAbs. [2020-07-23 09:10:19] [Robert Garry] AGree about the RNA/DNA - There are other vectors that could work too - even VSV- the devil we know.... [2020-07-23 09:11:13] [Kristian Andersen]