Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.105 [SLACK_000319] · slack_pm:msg:01066

Date: 2020-07-23 09:00
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Yup, very true - I'm just very worried that those 300 people wouldn't fully understand what they're signing up for. Need the safety data on the vaccine in any case, which already requires a lot of people - but I guess it depends onwhether we want (a) safety, or (b) efficacy data first. If the latter, challenge trial makes sense.

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-07-23 08:53 Robert F. Garry open

Agree - maybe not safe but even more dangerous - it may not work at all or very well - either would be a setback.
2020-07-23 08:55 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, it's unclear to me - definitely appear to be "not safe", but as you say - it could be even worse. I'm super worried this is going to be Trump's next political trick - he would have _no_ hesitation pushing a vaccine through where we have very little or no data on population-wide safety
2020-07-23 08:58 Robert F. Garry open

A small controlled trial of 300 people - maybe fewer- would get you the same information - does it work? you could have an answer in less than a month then move on to the next one if it doesn't. What are they telling these 30,000people - go out to bars? try to get infected. Probably not, but if they are giving them the proper advice - mask upsocial distance etc - you should have VERY FEW infections in the 30,000. Who did the power calculation to get30K?
2020-07-23 09:00 Robert F. Garry open

Population-wise safety another issue - I doubt that any of the 30,000 are in at risk groups - old - respiratory illness,obesity etc.
2020-07-23 09:00 Kristian G. Andersen

Yup, very true - I'm just very worried that those 300 people wouldn't fully understand what they're signing up for. Need the safety data on the vaccine in any case, which already requires a lot of people - but I guess it depends onwhether we want (a) safety, or (b) efficacy data first. If the latter, challenge trial makes sense.
2020-07-23 09:01 Robert F. Garry open

Yes - it's definitely Trumps next trick for sure....
2020-07-23 09:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

He'd push it through - _even_ if we knew it was unsafe or even dangerous. No doubt. And that's bloody terrifying.
2020-07-23 09:02 Robert F. Garry open

Enough safety data should be there in the Phase I and II trials - you're right that the Moderna safety data is HIGHLY suspect.
2020-07-23 09:06 Kristian G. Andersen open

If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on ChAdOx1 and Sinovac - I'd forget anything RNA- or DNA-based for now- it's just too early for those platforms.

Full conversation →