Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.912 [SLACK_001126] · slack_pm:msg:09455

Date: 2021-06-03 14:10
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Lab-leak / accidental release hypothesis

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I'm trying to figure out exactly how we should tackle this first paragraph (if at all different to what Andrew issuggesting, because that's ace!). A couple of things:• The focus from the lab leak focus has been on the likelihood of a lab leak, however, a lab leak in itself is insufficientto explain the origin of SC2• Any theory needs to be able to explain the emergence of SC2 - "natural emergence" does that easily"• A "lab leak" is an incomplete hypothesis that also needs to account for all events prior (capture or engineering) and those following (market outbreaks)• _ANY_ version of the lab leak hypothesis would require a conspiracy because they would have had to work on the virus prior to the outbreak - but categorically stated they didn't and provided evidence to support that (e.g., serology)

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2021-06-03 14:10 Robert F. Garry open

https://twitter.com/Ayjchan/status/1400529361133056001 Kinda feel like this is crap
2021-06-03 14:10 Edward C. Holmes open

Kristian Andersen - the fastest gear change since Bob Katter (you need to watch this): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm4kRqedsgo
2021-06-03 14:10 Kristian G. Andersen

I'm trying to figure out exactly how we should tackle this first paragraph (if at all different to what Andrew issuggesting, because that's ace!). A couple of things:• The focus from the lab leak focus has been on the likelihood of a lab leak, however, a lab leak in itself is insufficientto explain the origin of SC2• Any theory needs to be able to explain the emergence of SC2 - "natural emergence" does that easily"• A "lab leak" is an incomplete hypothesis that also needs to account for all events prior (capture or engineering) and those following (market outbreaks)• _ANY_ version of the lab leak hypothesis would require a conspiracy because they would have had to work on the virus prior to the outbreak - but categorically stated they didn't and provided evidence to support that (e.g., serology)
2021-06-03 14:11 Edward C. Holmes open

I'll get back to the paper when I can. This is good: https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-06-03/lab-leak-covid-origin
2021-06-03 14:11 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm wondering if we should double down on the conspiracy - because people like the Bloomshitters really don't wantto consider it, yet it is a KEY component of what they're saying, otherwise their hypothesis can't explain the emergence of SC2.
2021-06-03 14:13 Robert F. Garry open

@Eddie Holmes I may have talked to that guy
2021-06-03 14:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

To the other point about "capture" - I want to make people understand that _we_ don't find novel pandemic viruses, novel pandemic viruses find us. Novel epidemic viruses too. This really is huge - because it would be the first time inthe history of mankind that somebody would have managed to find a pandemic/epidemic novel virus before the virus found us. It's a very simple concept to grasp, so I'm wondering if we should spell it out?

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