Slack / Private Message Drop — page 912

[thread - ID: 2021-06-03 14:10:08] Kristian Andersen - the fastest gear change since Bob Katter (you need to watch this): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wm4kRqedsgo [2021-06-03 14:10:59] [Kristian Andersen] I'm trying to figure out exactly how we should tackle this first paragraph (if at all different to what Andrew is suggesting, because that's ace!). A couple of things: • The focus from the lab leak focus has been on the likelihood of a lab leak, however, a lab leak in itself is insufficient to explain the origin of SC2 • Any theory needs to be able to explain the emergence of SC2 - "natural emergence" does that easily" • A "lab leak" is an incomplete hypothesis that also needs to account for all events prior (capture or engineering) and those following (market outbreaks) • _ANY_ version of the lab leak hypothesis would require a conspiracy because they would have had to work on the virus prior to the outbreak - but categorically stated they didn't and provided evidence to support that (e.g., serology) [2021-06-03 14:11:30] [Eddie Holmes] [thread - ID: 2021-06-03 14:11:30] I'll get back to the paper when I can. This is good: https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2021-06-03/lab-leak-covid-origin [2021-06-03 14:11:48] [Kristian Andersen] I'm wondering if we should double down on the conspiracy - because people like the Bloomshitters really don't want to consider it, yet it is a KEY component of what they're saying, otherwise their hypothesis can't explain the emergence of SC2. [2021-06-03 14:13:36] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-06-03 14:11:30] @Eddie Holmes I may have talked to that guy [2021-06-03 14:13:38] [Kristian Andersen] To the other point about "capture" - I want to make people understand that _we_ don't find novel pandemic viruses, novel pandemic viruses find us. Novel epidemic viruses too. This really is huge - because it would be the first time in the history of mankind that somebody would have managed to find a pandemic/epidemic novel virus before the virus found us. It's a very simple concept to grasp, so I'm wondering if we should spell it out? [2021-06-03 14:15:56] [Kristian Andersen] Astute people might point out that "finding pandemic viruses before they find us" is _exactly_ what the EcoHealth/WIV program tried to do, however, we then either have to admit that that program was successful beyond belief OR, as we point out in our previous Nature commentary, is hugely unlikely (we can then just reference our paper). Thoughts on whether to spell this out in a sentence or not? I like the very simple concept of "we don't find novel pandemic/epidemic viruses, they find us". And because of that, the "lab leak" hypothesis falls flat. [2021-06-03 14:18:04] [Kristian Andersen] [thread - ID: 2021-06-03 14:10:08] @Eddie Holmes Haha, I love this - that's me! Also, I can't deny - this is pretty good: https://twitter.com/FunctionGain/status/1400254855764135937