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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.839-840 [SLACK_001053] · slack_pm:msg:08739

Date: 2021-05-19 12:19
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Intelligence community assessments Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Yes, almost certainly re-emergence and especially A82V gives it away - and, of course, the clock. There _are_ other explanations that can't be disproven, however, IMO persistence + re-emergence provide a much more likely explanation (we have seen all the pieces already - we just need to accept 500 days can also be five years. I have noproblem with that). Also - remember to mention the solution being vaccination as you suggested - will help combatstigma.

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Also - remember to mention the solution being vaccination as you suggested - will help combatstigma.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

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Also - remember to mention the solution being vaccination as you suggested - will help combatstigma.

own voice, substantive

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asserts

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2021-05-19 12:01 Robert F. Garry open

Off topic again, but Nature asked me to write a commentary on the paper describing the sequences from this year'sGuinea Ebola outbreak. It's comes heavily down that this is re-emergence. Given A82V is in the sequences and thatA82V arose somewhere between the initial spillover and the Gire,Andersen2014 sequences that's probably a good bet. I just want to make sure I'm not missing nuaunces (like a long-lived bat) discussed above in channel.
2021-05-19 12:19 Kristian G. Andersen

Yes, almost certainly re-emergence and especially A82V gives it away - and, of course, the clock. There _are_ other explanations that can't be disproven, however, IMO persistence + re-emergence provide a much more likely explanation (we have seen all the pieces already - we just need to accept 500 days can also be five years. I have noproblem with that). Also - remember to mention the solution being vaccination as you suggested - will help combatstigma.
2021-05-19 13:02 Robert F. Garry open

Good to hear. I will endeavor not to get too far out over my skis on the phylogeny. Yes - the stigma issue was well-discussed and vaccination might be key. I'm talking to Merck (one of my students (Tom Voss is there - Jessicawas also at Merck but moved a few weeks ago to J&J) about - at least - providing some vaccine to our Ebola survivor cohort in SL to test this.
2021-05-19 13:28 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Eddie Holmes > I think the laws of free speech allow me to call a bunch of conspiracy theorists conspiracy theorists. I believe you're indeed right. Bloomshitters too.
2021-05-19 13:38 Robert F. Garry open

@Eddie Holmes https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/05/19/coronavirus-origins It's remarkable to me how "rationale people" writing about Bloomshit avoid the obvious --- if you think that WIV had SC2 or something very close and didn't tell anyone HOW in the hell is this _not_ a conspiracy theory. Won't responsible commentary orjournalism maybe mention that?
2021-05-19 14:29 Edward C. Holmes open

@Eddie Holmes At least some of the comments are reasonable. Molecular Biologist is spot on.

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