A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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Have you talked to Worobey about any of this previously? There's nothing in the letter itself, but clearly it lays out afalse balance
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No. I wouldn't have expected him to get embroiled in this (particularly after the whole Ed Hooper stuff)
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Yeah, I was very surprised to see him on here - and disappointed.
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I was thinking more about the false equivalence stuff - perhaps we need a really good figure. Something not like this:
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2021-05-10 08:31
Andrew Rambaut
shared file(s): 2390701C-054C-4D1C-B9DB-1273AC4475CA_1_105_c.jpeg
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Baric - aka Deep Throat- is on because Po1 got too much press and we're not really coronavirologists.
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Basically you have gazillion bat viruses. A small fraction of these are human/civet/raccoon dog transmissible but you have millions of these and any transmissible viruses will jump. These will then jump to humans. You have numbers and time on your side. The alternative is a lab samples, say, 10,000 bats (all from a few locations). That sample hasto contain the human transmissible one (but it will not be selecting for it, unlike the carnivore reservoir), it has to stay viable as a virus and infect one person (out of a handful that may be working with the samples). Also the one human infectious virus (out of 10,000 has to be the one to stay viable and infect the lab worker.
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If you have zero evidence that SC2 was in the lab then you are left with this vanishingly small prior probability.
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? [shared file(s): image.png]