Slack / Private Message Drop — page 767

Fuck. Worobey is on it [2021-05-10 08:25:01] [Andrew Rambaut] Baric [2021-05-10 08:25:18] [Kristian Andersen] Yup, some relevant people on it - those two being the main two [2021-05-10 08:26:09] [Kristian Andersen] Have you talked to Worobey about any of this previously? There's nothing in the letter itself, but clearly it lays out a false balance [2021-05-10 08:26:52] [Andrew Rambaut] No. I wouldn't have expected him to get embroiled in this (particularly after the whole Ed Hooper stuff) [2021-05-10 08:28:03] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah, I was very surprised to see him on here - and disappointed. [2021-05-10 08:30:58] [Andrew Rambaut] I was thinking more about the false equivalence stuff - perhaps we need a really good figure. Something not like this: [2021-05-10 08:31:38] [Andrew Rambaut] shared file(s): 2390701C-054C-4D1C-B9DB-1273AC4475CA_1_105_c.jpeg [2021-05-10 08:31:50] [Robert Garry] Baric - aka Deep Throat- is on because Po1 got too much press and we're not really coronavirologists. [2021-05-10 08:36:11] [Andrew Rambaut] Basically you have gazillion bat viruses. A small fraction of these are human/civet/raccoon dog transmissible but you have millions of these and any transmissible viruses will jump. These will then jump to humans. You have numbers and time on your side. The alternative is a lab samples, say, 10,000 bats (all from a few locations). That sample has to contain the human transmissible one (but it will not be selecting for it, unlike the carnivore reservoir), it has to stay viable as a virus and infect one person (out of a handful that may be working with the samples). Also the one human infectious virus (out of 10,000 has to be the one to stay viable and infect the lab worker. [2021-05-10 08:37:02] [Andrew Rambaut] If you have zero evidence that SC2 was in the lab then you are left with this vanishingly small prior probability. [2021-05-10 08:44:40] [Robert Garry] ? [shared file(s): image.png] [2021-05-10 08:54:24] [Andrew Rambaut] t proportion of bat viruses that are carnivore/human transmissible e number of exposures between bats and carnivores (over all locations, and over decades)