Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.733-734 [SLACK_000947] · slack_pm:msg:07676

Date: 2021-04-28 05:02
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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I agree, Kristian, with Pooh being involved in the transmissibility - have thought it from the beginning - too much of acoincidence that B.1.1.7 had a FCS mutation (back when it was very rare). Now with all the other 681 mutations coming up (and 677 possibly). Certainly looks like B.1.351 is not as transmissible as B.1.1.7 and probably not P.1 either - they have not invadedinto new areas in the same way. We are looking at whether the FCS mutations are cropping up / spreading inpopulations with moderate NPI (i.e., like the English November lock-down where schools were still open etc). Total lock down clearly works against B.1.1.7 as much as any and it is possible that no-NPI doesn't really benefit B.1.1.7because it has a shorter (but stronger and earlier) infectious period.

In context

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2021-04-28 04:47 Robert F. Garry open

Atlantic article - could have been worse - at least no mention of GVP.
2021-04-28 04:52 Robert F. Garry open

Farming the mink, raccoon dogs, etc, etc, etc - so many opportunities for spillover. Follow the animals...
2021-04-28 05:02 Andrew Rambaut

I agree, Kristian, with Pooh being involved in the transmissibility - have thought it from the beginning - too much of acoincidence that B.1.1.7 had a FCS mutation (back when it was very rare). Now with all the other 681 mutations coming up (and 677 possibly). Certainly looks like B.1.351 is not as transmissible as B.1.1.7 and probably not P.1 either - they have not invadedinto new areas in the same way. We are looking at whether the FCS mutations are cropping up / spreading inpopulations with moderate NPI (i.e., like the English November lock-down where schools were still open etc). Total lock down clearly works against B.1.1.7 as much as any and it is possible that no-NPI doesn't really benefit B.1.1.7because it has a shorter (but stronger and earlier) infectious period.
2021-04-28 05:03 Robert F. Garry open

:clown_face: on :clown_face: Billy aka Kevin - on to something? [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-04-28 05:05 Robert F. Garry open

PooH or PooR both bad - would be very surprised if both don't enhance cleavage R>H probably.
2021-04-28 05:07 Robert F. Garry open

https://thenationalpulse.com/news/scientists-debunking-lab-leak-theory-linked-to-ccp/
2021-04-28 06:02 Edward C. Holmes open

I was invited to that meeting. Bloody glad I didn't go.

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