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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.609 [SLACK_000823] · slack_pm:msg:06367

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~5% serology seems to be the baseline false positive for just about everything - see Ebola in Sierra Leone etc.

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2021-03-20 08:59 Andrew Rambaut open

You can see why people want it to be a lab leak - this is much more scary.
2021-03-20 09:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

I think we mentioned this on our very first call... Nature is way way more scary than lab.
2021-03-20 09:18 Robert F. Garry open

Very good point - Daszak made a good one as well in the NPR - extrapolating the 3% serology to even a portion ofthe general population is a lot of sarbecovirus exposures - way more than a few lab ppl mist-netting at a few caves per year.
2021-03-20 09:34 Kristian G. Andersen open

3% - that may well be every ~6 months given (a) exposures likely very low titer, and (b) seroreversion to CoVs. Ithink it's safe to say that a huge number of people are exposed to CoVs on a daily basis - and not just in China.
2021-03-20 09:34 Andrew Rambaut

~5% serology seems to be the baseline false positive for just about everything - see Ebola in Sierra Leone etc.
2021-03-20 09:35 Kristian G. Andersen open

... in Africa :wink:. That 2-3% number actually has pretty good baselines
2021-03-20 09:36 Kristian G. Andersen open

Baseline sampled in e.g., Wuhan - of all places.
2021-03-20 09:36 Andrew Rambaut open

OK - baseline cross-reactivity with some sort of CoV
2021-03-20 09:36 Andrew Rambaut open

See waste-water in Europe in 2019