Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.532 [SLACK_000746] · slack_pm:msg:05538

Date: 2021-02-20 10:29
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Vaccines

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Yup, I agree on all of that - with annual updates and us constantly chasing after the virus (which will become easier over time), we'll be fine. My concern is that most people seem to hope for this scenario on "autopilot". Basically, wehave our current vaccines, we'll get them, and it'll be a smooth cruise going forward. I'm not so sure.

In context

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2021-02-20 09:49 Kristian G. Andersen open

> trying to get out tells me differences in exposure to seasonal coronaviruses (known and perhaps unknown) could be driving the difference btwn Africa nd the rest of the world India too. That place is the most mysterious of all to me. _Some_ level of cross-protection would support the notion that SC2 could become just another ccCoV, albeit slightly more severe - but less so than e.g., flu. Dunno.
2021-02-20 10:19 Robert F. Garry open

Couple of things that are hopeful in terms of whether some sort of "herd" immunity is going to get us out of this mess. 1. Galit's data on OC43 that she showed at last wks conference - prior exposure/existing immunity to OC43basically precluded severe disease. 2. new data showing that a vaccination [one dose] on top of a prior infectioninduces a "massive" and "broad" immune response. 3. exposure to B.1.351 does induce good neuts to .1.351 and 4.the African experience [good point about India], which I think reflects a near universal blanket immunity to"seasonal" CoVs including probably a beta or two we don't yet know about. BUT, I'm the optimistic one.
2021-02-20 10:25 Robert F. Garry open

I think a scenario of a yearly vaccination with constant updating [stabilized spike of course] is the most likely outcome - and yes it's not the flu so there will a a death toll, so not pretty. Monoclonals (in combo) - again being updated could blunt this. ASnd, some hope for a small molecule drug. Universal CoV vaccine - not so hopeful.
2021-02-20 10:27 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen Yeah - these are not all likely hypotheses I just want to get everything on table.
2021-02-20 10:29 Kristian G. Andersen

Yup, I agree on all of that - with annual updates and us constantly chasing after the virus (which will become easier over time), we'll be fine. My concern is that most people seem to hope for this scenario on "autopilot". Basically, wehave our current vaccines, we'll get them, and it'll be a smooth cruise going forward. I'm not so sure.
2021-02-20 10:29 Andrew Rambaut open

I think I will lay some stuff out there in the B117 paper (which we need to get out quickly because Tulio is being annoying). But then I think a nice piece in Science or Nature to bring it all together?
2021-02-20 10:29 Andrew Rambaut open

Basically - a "what the fuck just happened" piece?
2021-02-20 10:30 Kristian G. Andersen open

I think bringing it all together would be really important and helpful to a lot of people - so I'm a yes on that plan.
2021-02-20 10:31 Kristian G. Andersen open

Basically fleshing out a little more _many_ of the points already made in this thread. Maybe we can deploy some AIto scan through our text and write the paper for us...

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