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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.526 [SLACK_000740] · slack_pm:msg:05479

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The denominator is small

In context

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2021-02-19 10:50 Andrew Rambaut open

Don't like the look of this I just found in GISAID: [shared file(s): Image from iOS.jpg]
2021-02-19 11:00 Kristian G. Andersen open

Any specific concern about that GISAID entry other than it being a vaccinated person who got P.1? I think we're going to see a lot of those... (B.1.351 too - and probably B.1.1.7 with additional friends)
2021-02-19 11:02 Andrew Rambaut open

Just it is the first example I think. And Pziser. Vaccinated in June? Presumably trial.
2021-02-19 11:03 Andrew Rambaut open

What concerns me is the very small number of P.1s that are likely in Italy and they already have a potential breakthrough
2021-02-19 11:04 Andrew Rambaut

The denominator is small
2021-02-19 11:05 Andrew Rambaut open

On the other hand the numerator is 1 :man-shrugging::skin-tone-4:
2021-02-19 11:08 Kristian G. Andersen open

I hear the Pziser vaccine is pretty bad :wink:. I agree with you - general concern, but I might appear a little less concerned because it's pretty clear to me that we're going to start seeing a lot of these. The in vitro studies all look at absolute PEAK neut titers and B.1.351 has ahuge hit - I expect that'll translate to a lot of infection out in the wild. Hopefully those cases will be milder on averagethough - and we have _some_ data to suggest that's the case. What that spread will be though, well.... :man-shrugging: