Slack / Private Message Drop — page 526

Any specific concern about that GISAID entry other than it being a vaccinated person who got P.1? I think we're going to see a lot of those... (B.1.351 too - and probably B.1.1.7 with additional friends) [2021-02-19 11:02:56] [Andrew Rambaut] Just it is the first example I think. And Pziser. Vaccinated in June? Presumably trial. [2021-02-19 11:03:47] [Andrew Rambaut] What concerns me is the very small number of P.1s that are likely in Italy and they already have a potential breakthrough [2021-02-19 11:04:08] [Andrew Rambaut] The denominator is small [2021-02-19 11:05:16] [Andrew Rambaut] On the other hand the numerator is 1 :man-shrugging::skin-tone-4: [2021-02-19 11:08:09] [Kristian Andersen] I hear the Pziser vaccine is pretty bad :wink:. I agree with you - general concern, but I might appear a little less concerned because it's pretty clear to me that we're going to start seeing a lot of these. The in vitro studies all look at absolute PEAK neut titers and B.1.351 has a huge hit - I expect that'll translate to a lot of infection out in the wild. Hopefully those cases will be milder on average though - and we have _some_ data to suggest that's the case. What that spread will be though, well.... :man-shrugging: [2021-02-19 12:35:07] [Robert Garry] To @Andrew Rambaut point above. I'm pretty sure there has been a global shift in the fitness landscape. I'm not too sure where the major selection is at the population level or the individual level or BOTH. However, I do think that the mutations at nsp12 P323 are contributing mightily to the volatility. I'm just shaking my head in disbelief. Like a screaming read flag this amino acid is literally sitting in the groove of the RdRp complex. It surely has to affect transcription fidelity. A deletion in nsp8 also may be a factor. [shared file(s): image.png] [2021-02-19 12:35:53] [Robert Garry] Same feeling I got when I saw the PRRA.... [2021-02-19 12:47:21] [Robert Garry] Looks like it showed up early around about the time of the first DouG sightings. [2021-02-19 13:12:39] [Kristian Andersen] What's the coordinates of that mutation in ORF1a space Bob? [2021-02-19 13:24:29] [Robert Garry] I think it's C14408T P4715L. [2021-02-19 13:27:37] [Kristian Andersen]