Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.456 [SLACK_000670] · slack_pm:msg:04728

Date: 2021-01-26 17:22
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

How people can look at this data and conclude that "it'll be totally fine for vaccines - all good news", I simply don't understand. Either it's delusional or it's because we have now (yet again) turned to wishful thinking. There is little doubt in my mind we'll have to update the vaccine. Will B.1.351 kill them completely? Very likely not -however, there's going to be a hard hit to the efficacy because of this.

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
How people can look at this data and conclude that "it'll be totally fine for vaccines - all good news", I simply don't understand.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external sentence carries quotation marks	asserts
There is little doubt in my mind we'll have to update the vaccine.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

How people can look at this data and conclude that "it'll be totally fine for vaccines - all good news", I simply don't understand.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external sentence carries quotation marks

asserts

There is little doubt in my mind we'll have to update the vaccine.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-26 16:26 Robert F. Garry open

Alignment including Thai Bat CoV and Cambodian Bat CoV. Take homes: Thai Bat spike and RmYN02 spike are nearly identical, including at the S1/S2 cleavage site. Cambobatcov RBD is very similar to PangoGD RBD and SARS-CoV-2 RBD. 5/6 pf the PO1 key residues. Cambobatcov also has the Furin landing site QTQTN, like RaTG13, GD Pango and SARS-CoV-2, that is often deleted on extended cell passage. [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-01-26 16:38 Kristian G. Andersen open

Nice! Bob, can you please share the actual alignment? Would like to try and merge it with what I have.
2021-01-26 16:41 Edward C. Holmes open

Great work Bob! Hoping to get the Yunnan bat virus sequences soon.
2021-01-26 17:20 Kristian G. Andersen open

Here's the paper from David Ho - B.1.351 not looking good: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.25.428137v2.full.pdf
2021-01-26 17:22 Kristian G. Andersen

How people can look at this data and conclude that "it'll be totally fine for vaccines - all good news", I simply don't understand. Either it's delusional or it's because we have now (yet again) turned to wishful thinking. There is little doubt in my mind we'll have to update the vaccine. Will B.1.351 kill them completely? Very likely not -however, there's going to be a hard hit to the efficacy because of this.
2021-01-26 17:22 Edward C. Holmes open

I thought not...
2021-01-26 17:23 Edward C. Holmes open

Fucker as you say...
2021-01-26 17:24 Kristian G. Andersen open

The Moderna paper yesterday (which looks more promising) they literally took the serum at the very peak (a week after the booster) so the data would look better. In this paper they wait a few weeks and see a more worrisome effect - similar to the observations from RSA. In any case - it sounds like Moderna is already working on an updated design, so that's the right thing to do - I just hope that work gets fast-tracked.
2021-01-26 17:27 Robert F. Garry open

@Kristian Andersen Of course, I'll send when I get back to the office computer.

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