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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.373 [SLACK_000587] · slack_pm:msg:03884

Date: 2021-01-09 14:55
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Edward C. Holmes

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I'm not sure it's a 'phase change' driven by immune selection. If that were the case wouldn't we see more reinfection than we are seeing? I wonder if its just that there is more diversity because there are more cases than there have ever been. The virus population is growing rapidly.

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2021-01-09 14:55 Edward C. Holmes

I'm not sure it's a 'phase change' driven by immune selection. If that were the case wouldn't we see more reinfection than we are seeing? I wonder if its just that there is more diversity because there are more cases than there have ever been. The virus population is growing rapidly.
2021-01-09 15:54 Andrew Rambaut open

I agree, Eddie (except possibly for parts of Brazil where infection rates from previous peaks were already high). Butit just feels like something is going on.
2021-01-09 15:56 Andrew Rambaut open

But there is not one of these mutations that haven't cropped up numerous times before (and that is just the times wesaw it in the sequences). I think what is new is the combinations. And as you say, that is just a numbers game.

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