Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.373 [SLACK_000587] · slack_pm:msg:03883

Date: 2021-01-09 11:09
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Yes - totally - the new variants or if ET is correct strains are coming just like in the UK. And I agree they are going todominate before the vaccines will even start to have any effect on spread.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
And I agree they are going todominate before the vaccines will even start to have any effect on spread.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	acknowledges

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

And I agree they are going todominate before the vaccines will even start to have any effect on spread.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

acknowledges

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-09 10:59 Robert F. Garry open

"it's unclear to me we'll be able to control COVID in the US in a couple of months." Actually no way. The only thing that is going to stop this in the US is vaccine for the reasons you mention. One has to hope that despite the variants the vaccines retain enough efficacy to blunt the spread [i'm hopeful but not convinced] and that somehow all stopspulled out they can be manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed to enough people who agree to bevaccinated. It's going to be more than a few months before case numbers come down to "control" in the best case. Need to start on v2.0 of the vaccines right now.
2021-01-09 11:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

The vaccines are not going to be distributed in time - not by a long shot
2021-01-09 11:03 Kristian G. Andersen open

Here's a very simple analysis illustrating the issue - we're currently Rt ~1 [shared file(s): SEIR.jpg]
2021-01-09 11:04 Kristian G. Andersen open

[this is for San Diego - ~ 1% current frequency].
2021-01-09 11:09 Robert F. Garry

Yes - totally - the new variants or if ET is correct strains are coming just like in the UK. And I agree they are going todominate before the vaccines will even start to have any effect on spread.

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