Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.372 [SLACK_000586] · slack_pm:msg:03879

Date: 2021-01-09 10:59
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

"it's unclear to me we'll be able to control COVID in the US in a couple of months." Actually no way. The only thing that is going to stop this in the US is vaccine for the reasons you mention. One has to hope that despite the variants the vaccines retain enough efficacy to blunt the spread [i'm hopeful but not convinced] and that somehow all stopspulled out they can be manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed to enough people who agree to bevaccinated. It's going to be more than a few months before case numbers come down to "control" in the best case. Need to start on v2.0 of the vaccines right now.

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
The only thing that is going to stop this in the US is vaccine for the reasons you mention.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts
One has to hope that despite the variants the vaccines retain enough efficacy to blunt the spread [i'm hopeful but not convinced] and that somehow all stopspulled out they can be manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed to enough people who agree to bevaccinated.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	acknowledges

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

The only thing that is going to stop this in the US is vaccine for the reasons you mention.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

One has to hope that despite the variants the vaccines retain enough efficacy to blunt the spread [i'm hopeful but not convinced] and that somehow all stopspulled out they can be manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed to enough people who agree to bevaccinated.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

acknowledges

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-09 10:34 Kristian G. Andersen open

Also, this is basically the final confirmation that @Andrew Rambaut was absolutely correct in ringing the big redalarm bell:https://twitter.com/LindorffLarsen/status/1347916349704646656?s=20Looks like the doubling rate might be a little less in DK than UK, but clearly same trajectory.
2021-01-09 10:37 Kristian G. Andersen open

And I have mentioned this several times, but worth repeating - it's unclear to me we'll be able to control COVID inthe US in a couple of months. Just too much inaction and lack of coordination, coupled with pandemic fatigue. Iwould not be surprised if we reach 1m fatalities by summer.I hope I'm wrong. Very wrong.
2021-01-09 10:38 Robert F. Garry open

False reports of a new 'U.S. variant' originated from Dr. Deborah Birx on the task force.
2021-01-09 10:42 Robert F. Garry open

Birx needs to retire - I got into more than one scientific disagreement with her back in the day on AIDS study sections - doesn't really think things thru - overtly political - perfect for trump, but hopefully we do better going forward.
2021-01-09 10:59 Robert F. Garry

"it's unclear to me we'll be able to control COVID in the US in a couple of months." Actually no way. The only thing that is going to stop this in the US is vaccine for the reasons you mention. One has to hope that despite the variants the vaccines retain enough efficacy to blunt the spread [i'm hopeful but not convinced] and that somehow all stopspulled out they can be manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed to enough people who agree to bevaccinated. It's going to be more than a few months before case numbers come down to "control" in the best case. Need to start on v2.0 of the vaccines right now.
2021-01-09 11:02 Kristian G. Andersen open

The vaccines are not going to be distributed in time - not by a long shot
2021-01-09 11:03 Kristian G. Andersen open

Here's a very simple analysis illustrating the issue - we're currently Rt ~1 [shared file(s): SEIR.jpg]
2021-01-09 11:04 Kristian G. Andersen open

[this is for San Diego - ~ 1% current frequency].
2021-01-09 11:09 Robert F. Garry open

Yes - totally - the new variants or if ET is correct strains are coming just like in the UK. And I agree they are going todominate before the vaccines will even start to have any effect on spread.

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