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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.373 [SLACK_000587] · slack_pm:msg:03881

Page text: p.373 · original PDF

Date
2021-01-09 11:03
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Here's a very simple analysis illustrating the issue - we're currently Rt ~1 [shared file(s): SEIR.jpg]

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

  1. 2021-01-09 10:38 Robert F. Garry open
    False reports of a new 'U.S. variant' originated from Dr. Deborah Birx on the task force.
  2. 2021-01-09 10:42 Robert F. Garry open
    Birx needs to retire - I got into more than one scientific disagreement with her back in the day on AIDS study sections - doesn't really think things thru - overtly political - perfect for trump, but hopefully we do better going forward.
  3. 2021-01-09 10:59 Robert F. Garry open
    "it's unclear to me we'll be able to control COVID in the US in a couple of months." Actually no way. The only thing that is going to stop this in the US is vaccine for the reasons you mention. One has to hope that despite the variants the vaccines retain enough efficacy to blunt the spread [i'm hopeful but not convinced] and that somehow all stopspulled out they can be manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed to enough people who agree to bevaccinated. It's going to be more than a few months before case numbers come down to "control" in the best case. Need to start on v2.0 of the vaccines right now.
  4. 2021-01-09 11:02 Kristian G. Andersen open
    The vaccines are not going to be distributed in time - not by a long shot
  5. 2021-01-09 11:03 Kristian G. Andersen
    Here's a very simple analysis illustrating the issue - we're currently Rt ~1 [shared file(s): SEIR.jpg]
  6. 2021-01-09 11:04 Kristian G. Andersen open
    [this is for San Diego - ~ 1% current frequency].
  7. 2021-01-09 11:09 Robert F. Garry open
    Yes - totally - the new variants or if ET is correct strains are coming just like in the UK. And I agree they are going todominate before the vaccines will even start to have any effect on spread.

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