A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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> I am trying to decide if this is a 'phase-change' in the evolution of the virus (i.e., driven by standing immunity)I have been wondering about this myself - definitely feels like it. The areas where we have seen these popping uphave had a lot of COVID-19 going around, so a fair bit of standing immunity. I absolutely hope not though - it's apretty scary thought and I have no idea how driving vaccines into a raging pandemic will change that landscape.> Pooh - love it :wink:. Bob, how does the RRRAR affect the predicted O-Glyc? Presumably knock out one of the predicted sites? And just to get back to a question we talked about a couple of days ago - (a) might E484K just be overall better atevading immunity or is it just that it (b) changes an important epitope? I have been thinking about this a lot... I had been leaning towards the former, but now I'm getting increasingly concerned it's the latter. Mostly based on this paper: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.06.425392v2.full.pdf. Is it possible that the combo of Doug, Eeek, and Nelly simply leads to a virus that have such a high affinity for ACE2 that the spike-ACE2 interaction more effectively outcompetes spike-NAb binding? Not inconceivable - I mean, take a look at the difference in binding affinity here: [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-01-09 at 10.01.04 AM.png]
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We're talking orders of magnitude difference in binding affinity - that's not nothing....
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Looks like Eeek even though it doesn't seem to contact ACE2 nevertheless can enhance binding when coupled with Nelly. Surprising but perhaps not shocking.
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Yup - enhances it by quite a bit
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2021-01-09 10:29
Robert F. Garry
Poor preserved 2/3 predicted O-glycans just like Pooh.
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Immune escape plus enhanced fitness is ......worrisome.
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That's to put it mildly...
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Also, this is basically the final confirmation that @Andrew Rambaut was absolutely correct in ringing the big redalarm bell:https://twitter.com/LindorffLarsen/status/1347916349704646656?s=20Looks like the doubling rate might be a little less in DK than UK, but clearly same trajectory.
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And I have mentioned this several times, but worth repeating - it's unclear to me we'll be able to control COVID inthe US in a couple of months. Just too much inaction and lack of coordination, coupled with pandemic fatigue. Iwould not be surprised if we reach 1m fatalities by summer.I hope I'm wrong. Very wrong.