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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.350 [SLACK_000564] · slack_pm:msg:03676

Page text: p.350 · original PDF

Date: 2020-12-31 07:12
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen

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Yup. We'll know within a month or two.... Helix got three from San Diego too, so we might be ground zero

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2020-12-31 06:29 Robert F. Garry open

@Eddie Holmes It's the GD pangolin - there's that little bit in the RBD where the pangolin blue line is above the green RaTG13 line in Spike. Not as well resolved as in Lam2020, which threw me off, but I guess that's a windowthing. Will be fascinating to see which bat CoV spike the new Cambodian CoV spike lines up with. Biggest deal stillto me similarity with the RaTG13 in orf1b.
2020-12-31 07:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm not sure "excited" is the right word - "exhausted" might be more fitting :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:. I'm sure all the UK folks must be rolling their eyes - "seriously, the US goes nuts over A SINGLE SEQUENCE?! Really". But yeah P681H is very interesting indeed - and yes, only knocks out one predicted site. Separately, I don't know what to do about B.1.1.7. Surges in the US typically have Rt ~1.2, while declines are Rt~0.8. It seems pretty clear that Rt for B.1.1.7 may be increased by roughly 50% (at least in whatever context it finds itself in in the UK) soooo :chart_with_upwards_trend:
2020-12-31 07:11 Andrew Rambaut open

The way I see it is that the US is a test of the hypothesis of 50% greater inherent R.
2020-12-31 07:12 Andrew Rambaut open

If it doesn't take off in the US then it probably isn't
2020-12-31 07:12 Kristian G. Andersen

Yup. We'll know within a month or two.... Helix got three from San Diego too, so we might be ground zero
2020-12-31 07:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

(Helix caught four total - from across the country. Three in San Diego)
2020-12-31 07:23 Robert F. Garry open

Hang in there Kristian - good work - we'll send the NOLa immunosuppressed/"rebound" patient in the coming week.

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