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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.350 [SLACK_000564] · slack_pm:msg:03677

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(Helix caught four total - from across the country. Three in San Diego)

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A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-12-31 07:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

I'm not sure "excited" is the right word - "exhausted" might be more fitting :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:. I'm sure all the UK folks must be rolling their eyes - "seriously, the US goes nuts over A SINGLE SEQUENCE?! Really". But yeah P681H is very interesting indeed - and yes, only knocks out one predicted site. Separately, I don't know what to do about B.1.1.7. Surges in the US typically have Rt ~1.2, while declines are Rt~0.8. It seems pretty clear that Rt for B.1.1.7 may be increased by roughly 50% (at least in whatever context it finds itself in in the UK) soooo :chart_with_upwards_trend:
2020-12-31 07:11 Andrew Rambaut open

The way I see it is that the US is a test of the hypothesis of 50% greater inherent R.
2020-12-31 07:12 Andrew Rambaut open

If it doesn't take off in the US then it probably isn't
2020-12-31 07:12 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup. We'll know within a month or two.... Helix got three from San Diego too, so we might be ground zero
2020-12-31 07:13 Kristian G. Andersen

(Helix caught four total - from across the country. Three in San Diego)
2020-12-31 07:23 Robert F. Garry open

Hang in there Kristian - good work - we'll send the NOLa immunosuppressed/"rebound" patient in the coming week.