Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.212 [SLACK_000426] · slack_pm:msg:02207

Date: 2020-10-05 11:06
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Intelligence community assessments Awards, honoraria and recognition

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

"could any standard patient lead to these events, or does it take something special" It's probably both - put your standard patient in the right situation [like the WH gala or a bar]- they will SS. I also think there are likely special patients that exist that spread especially well and that very high virus load is a major discriminator btwn the standard and special patients.

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
"could any standard patient lead to these events, or does it take something special" It's probably both - put your standard patient in the right situation [like the WH gala or a bar]- they will SS.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external inside quotation marks	asserts
I also think there are likely special patients that exist that spread especially well and that very high virus load is a major discriminator btwn the standard and special patients.	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

"could any standard patient lead to these events, or does it take something special" It's probably both - put your standard patient in the right situation [like the WH gala or a bar]- they will SS.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external inside quotation marks

asserts

I also think there are likely special patients that exist that spread especially well and that very high virus load is a major discriminator btwn the standard and special patients.

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-10-05 10:35 Kristian G. Andersen open

Many more to come.
2020-10-05 10:51 Robert F. Garry open

Yeah it's really true that most cases are due to these "super-spreader events." Bad terminology but it's true - a case either doesn't spread or spreads to few or there are many cases all linked.
2020-10-05 10:55 Kristian G. Andersen open

While there are certainly SS events, it's still not clear to me if events like these are due to a person being particularlyprone to spreading, or whether it's just the event itself (in other words - could any standard patient lead to these events, or does it take something special?).
2020-10-05 10:57 Kristian G. Andersen open

@Eddie Holmes the paper you shared a while back about the ACE2 selection - very interesting and so messed up. Basically, ACE2 in bats and SARS-like CoVs are in a constant evolutionary race swapping AAs frequently. When you combine it with this part (from the paper): "we found that bat SARSr-CoV RBDs showed a higher binding affinityto human ACE2 than to R. sinicus ACE2s but did not display obvious differences among the R. sinicus ACE2s" -well, you'll always have a disaster in the waiting....
2020-10-05 11:06 Robert F. Garry

"could any standard patient lead to these events, or does it take something special" It's probably both - put your standard patient in the right situation [like the WH gala or a bar]- they will SS. I also think there are likely special patients that exist that spread especially well and that very high virus load is a major discriminator btwn the standard and special patients.

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