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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.152 [SLACK_000366] · slack_pm:msg:01558

Page text: p.152 · original PDF

Date
2020-09-01 14:42
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut

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(but I don't know how I know that because I haven't seen the paper)

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

  1. 2020-09-01 14:21 Edward C. Holmes open
    Not entirely unexpected given some of the common cold coronas. The classic literature (by Phil Minor) was suggesting multiple infection episodes within a year.
  2. 2020-09-01 14:36 Andrew Rambaut open
    But in this case it smells fishy. I don't believe there was enough SC2 around in Beijing for 6 out of their 273 patients even to have multiple exposures of radically different viruses, let alone actually become infected.
  3. 2020-09-01 14:40 Edward C. Holmes open
    Perhaps, but the official numbers from China are clearly large underestimates.
  4. 2020-09-01 14:41 Andrew Rambaut open
    I agree but even so. One of the 6 is 2 years old.
  5. 2020-09-01 14:42 Andrew Rambaut
    (but I don't know how I know that because I haven't seen the paper)
  6. 2020-09-01 14:42 Edward C. Holmes open
    Excellent educated guess.
  7. 2020-09-01 14:44 Edward C. Holmes open
    There are two different things: (i) does the paper show reinfection; (ii) does it give a reliable frequency of reinfection because of sampling biases.
  8. 2020-09-01 14:49 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Trying to get clarity on some of these questions - because both are important. I requested the raw data, so going totake a look at that first in case something got mixed up.If these six are actual my high risk (e.g. frontline workers assuming they're immune) than I can believe it. But ifthey're a random sampling, then it looks really unlikely - and yes, there's a baby in there too....
  9. 2020-09-01 14:50 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Or toddler - whatever - little human (I don't know kids...)

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