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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.152 [SLACK_000366] · slack_pm:msg:01556

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Perhaps, but the official numbers from China are clearly large underestimates.

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Perhaps, but the official numbers from China are clearly large underestimates.	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

Perhaps, but the official numbers from China are clearly large underestimates.

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

asserts

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2020-09-01 14:21 Edward C. Holmes open

Not entirely unexpected given some of the common cold coronas. The classic literature (by Phil Minor) was suggesting multiple infection episodes within a year.
2020-09-01 14:36 Andrew Rambaut open

But in this case it smells fishy. I don't believe there was enough SC2 around in Beijing for 6 out of their 273 patients even to have multiple exposures of radically different viruses, let alone actually become infected.
2020-09-01 14:40 Edward C. Holmes

Perhaps, but the official numbers from China are clearly large underestimates.
2020-09-01 14:41 Andrew Rambaut open

I agree but even so. One of the 6 is 2 years old.
2020-09-01 14:42 Andrew Rambaut open

(but I don't know how I know that because I haven't seen the paper)
2020-09-01 14:42 Edward C. Holmes open

Excellent educated guess.
2020-09-01 14:44 Edward C. Holmes open

There are two different things: (i) does the paper show reinfection; (ii) does it give a reliable frequency of reinfection because of sampling biases.