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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.104 [SLACK_000318] · slack_pm:msg:01061

Page text: p.104 · original PDF

Date
2020-07-23 08:53
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker
Kristian G. Andersen

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They _really_ need to do that trial in high-transmission areas - i.e., not the North East!

In context

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  1. 2020-07-23 08:51 Robert F. Garry open
    I could get begind that
  2. 2020-07-23 08:51 Robert F. Garry open
    but unfortunately it's not what they doinghttps://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2020/06/02/fauci-modernas-phase-3-covid-19-vaccine-trial-will-include-30000-young-and-old-individuals/#316e15174f75
  3. 2020-07-23 08:52 Kristian G. Andersen open
    I'm _super_ worried about Moderna... Just not convinced that thing is safe.
  4. 2020-07-23 08:53 Robert F. Garry open
    Basically for Moderna they are immunizing/placeboing 30,000 people then sending them out to see how many get infected.
  5. 2020-07-23 08:53 Kristian G. Andersen
    They _really_ need to do that trial in high-transmission areas - i.e., not the North East!
  6. 2020-07-23 08:53 Robert F. Garry open
    Agree - maybe not safe but even more dangerous - it may not work at all or very well - either would be a setback.
  7. 2020-07-23 08:55 Kristian G. Andersen open
    Yeah, it's unclear to me - definitely appear to be "not safe", but as you say - it could be even worse. I'm super worried this is going to be Trump's next political trick - he would have _no_ hesitation pushing a vaccine through where we have very little or no data on population-wide safety
  8. 2020-07-23 08:58 Robert F. Garry open
    A small controlled trial of 300 people - maybe fewer- would get you the same information - does it work? you could have an answer in less than a month then move on to the next one if it doesn't. What are they telling these 30,000people - go out to bars? try to get infected. Probably not, but if they are giving them the proper advice - mask upsocial distance etc - you should have VERY FEW infections in the 30,000. Who did the power calculation to get30K?
  9. 2020-07-23 09:00 Robert F. Garry open
    Population-wise safety another issue - I doubt that any of the 30,000 are in at risk groups - old - respiratory illness,obesity etc.

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