Slack / Private Message Drop — page 367

@Andrew Rambaut I know, but current consensus [Bloom, Rasmussen, even Fauci but he's always cagey] is that the existing vaccines will induce "polyclonal" immunity that will protect against viruses with just a few mutations. I would say that was true, BUT Nelly and Erik sure look like immune escape variants not to mention K417N and the NTD mutants. IMO not too soon to start tuning up v2 of those vaccines. I would not assume this has started. [2021-01-07 13:02:42] [Kristian Andersen] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut I hope they're correct that the vaccines will work just fine - I'm certainly less confident making such statements and unwilling to speculate until I have seen some of the UK neut data. [2021-01-07 14:14:28] [Andrew Rambaut] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut I just hope the regulatory frameworks are in place to change the source spike sequences quickly and easily. [2021-01-07 14:16:57] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut That's the sound of the hammer hitting the nail on the head. [2021-01-07 15:51:10] [Eddie Holmes] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut Evolution is a pain in the arse. [2021-01-07 16:16:27] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut Yeah - truly. At this point it's literally a guess as to what to change the spike to in v2.0 vaccines. Does E484K induce a good immune response against E484 viruses or is Erik a total escape from the human repertoire[s]? I doubt it, but who knows. Need to get some plasma from people that have been infected with the UK and ZA variants to see if they actually recognize the putative epitopes are not. [2021-01-07 16:29:54] [Andrew Rambaut] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut Plenty of that plasma around at the moment in the UK [2021-01-07 17:05:53] [Kristian Andersen] [thread - ID: 2021-01-07 11:37:45] @Andrew Rambaut "Does E484K induce a good immune response against E484 viruses or is Erik a total escape from the human repertoire[s]? I doubt it, but who knows". I was wondering about this very same question yesterday... I assume an updated spike protein should likely do it, but as you say, who knows (if it's not, I'm going to shoot myself). [2021-01-07 18:23:35] [Robert Garry] Some good points - other points [?] https://science.sciencemag.org/content/371/6525/120 [2021-01-07 18:27:56] [Robert Garry]