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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.969 [SLACK_001183] · slack_pm:msg:10103

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Shows it didn't start in August though

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-07-02 08:43 Andrew Rambaut open

Actually looking more carefully - I don't think it is much use to us
2021-07-02 08:43 Kristian G. Andersen open

We unfortunately don't have either raw data or higher quality figures :disappointed:. I asked Marion, but she said there's no way to get the data since all of that is on the Chinese side. The excess deaths plot is just a fill within someneighborhood borders, so maybe we can find a vector of their maps?
2021-07-02 08:43 Andrew Rambaut open

It is all in week 3 or later
2021-07-02 08:44 Andrew Rambaut open

The December stuff I guess the numbers are too small to be detectible
2021-07-02 08:44 Andrew Rambaut

Shows it didn't start in August though
2021-07-02 08:44 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, everything is happening over three weeks in January, so those would be the ones that I think would be helpful
2021-07-02 08:44 Kristian G. Andersen open

Having cases in December and then excess deaths in January would fit the bill
2021-07-02 08:45 Andrew Rambaut open

But the spatial pattern by January would mean much I think
2021-07-02 08:45 Kristian G. Andersen open

It's mostly that spatial pattern we refer to - because it starts North