COVID-19 Records

Private channel session 1554

43 messages over 1h 6m, 2021-07-02 – 2021-07-02.

A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.

  1. 2021-07-02 08:29 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.968
    Do we have an editable version of the figures? Do you want me to try to integrate them and style them a bit?
  2. 2021-07-02 08:38 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.968
    I would like to do something with this but the resolution is too bad to extract the data even though it is just binary. Ican't see the exact districts in the centre. We need to get the raw data or better quality figures.
  3. 2021-07-02 08:43 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    Actually looking more carefully - I don't think it is much use to us
  4. 2021-07-02 08:43 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.969
    We unfortunately don't have either raw data or higher quality figures :disappointed:. I asked Marion, but she said there's no way to get the data since all of that is on the Chinese side. The excess deaths plot is just a fill within someneighborhood borders, so maybe we can find a vector of their maps?
  5. 2021-07-02 08:43 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    It is all in week 3 or later
  6. 2021-07-02 08:44 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    The December stuff I guess the numbers are too small to be detectible
  7. 2021-07-02 08:44 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    Shows it didn't start in August though
  8. 2021-07-02 08:44 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.969
    Yeah, everything is happening over three weeks in January, so those would be the ones that I think would be helpful
  9. 2021-07-02 08:44 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.969
    Having cases in December and then excess deaths in January would fit the bill
  10. 2021-07-02 08:45 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    But the spatial pattern by January would mean much I think
  11. 2021-07-02 08:45 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.969
    It's mostly that spatial pattern we refer to - because it starts North
  12. 2021-07-02 08:46 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    I guess we might just be able to work out the Districts: [shared file(s): image.png]
  13. 2021-07-02 08:47 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-19802-w/figures/2 [shared file(s): image.png]
  14. 2021-07-02 08:47 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.969
    Maybe
  15. 2021-07-02 08:48 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.969
    Yeah, I think if we have the borders of those neighborhoods, then they could just be filled in
  16. 2021-07-02 08:49 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    I just mean trying to pick out those border on the little maps - some shapes that don't easily match
  17. 2021-07-02 08:50 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.970
    Yeah, I'm wondering if there's a vector of whatever map it is WHO used. Lemme dig a little..
  18. 2021-07-02 08:53 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    https://els-jbs-prod-cdn.jbs.elsevierhealth.com/cms/attachment/5f763a8e-f8b4-4770-bab6-1f54fdcf8259/gr3.jpg [shared file(s): image.png]
  19. 2021-07-02 08:53 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    This one seems to fit a bit better
  20. 2021-07-02 08:55 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.970
    Somewhat - but still some inconsistency.
  21. 2021-07-02 08:58 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.970
    Friggin' impossible!
  22. 2021-07-02 08:59 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    Leave it - not worth it for the marginal point it would make. If we wanted to we could just cite the fact.
  23. 2021-07-02 09:03 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    Just say there was no excess deaths due to pneumonia or all-causes in JX in January?
  24. 2021-07-02 09:10 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.970
    I think the key point is that those excess deaths first cluster North of the river and then moves South - like the cases (cases have a sampling bias, excess deaths do not).We have a postdoc at our center who's from Wuhan - let me just try to ping him
  25. 2021-07-02 09:13 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    Not sure they show that: [shared file(s): image.png]
  26. 2021-07-02 09:14 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    Nothing in Week2, Week 3 has both sides of the river.
  27. 2021-07-02 09:14 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    But it is all Central Districts
  28. 2021-07-02 09:15 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.970
    Spreading out to the outlying areas (which includes WIV)
  29. 2021-07-02 09:17 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    There are two maps - the "pneumonia" one looks a little different [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-07-02 at 9.16.28AM.png]
  30. 2021-07-02 09:18 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    (which I think is the one I have been going with).
  31. 2021-07-02 09:18 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    Here's a better map where (I think) the districts are shown - I think some of the borders in the WHO map actuallycorrespond to rivers. [shared file(s): 20190322090211.png]
  32. 2021-07-02 09:22 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.971
    Yes - that is better - you sent all-cause above (fig 20) but we want fig 21.
  33. 2021-07-02 09:23 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    shared file(s): Map-of-the-administrative-divisions-of-Wuhan-city.png
  34. 2021-07-02 09:24 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.971
    Again - we could just reference the WHO report and say that "by week 3, all pneumonia related excess mortality wasin districts to the north of the river"
  35. 2021-07-02 09:25 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    Yeah, that might be easier - if it gets too busy, I think that's totally sufficient.
  36. 2021-07-02 09:26 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.971
    I think week 3 is only: Dongxihu, Hanyang, Jiang'an, Jianghan
  37. 2021-07-02 09:27 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.971
    By week 5 it is everywhere
  38. 2021-07-02 09:28 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.971
    Perhaps we can highlight those 4 districts in the map and say they were the first to spike in excess mortality
  39. 2021-07-02 09:29 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    Yeah, that'd be nice - and yes, I agree it's those four (although I have it as Dongxihu not Dongzihu)
  40. 2021-07-02 09:29 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.971
    yes - mistyped...
  41. 2021-07-02 09:33 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.971
    And just as reference point - Huanan market is in Jianghan.
  42. 2021-07-02 09:34 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.972
    Judging from Bob's map, Huanan market is in Jianghan?
  43. 2021-07-02 09:36 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.972
    Yeah - from Google too and just double-checked.