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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.375 [SLACK_000589] · slack_pm:msg:03905

Page text: p.375 · original PDF

Date
2021-01-10 11:32
Type
chat message · slack
recipient
Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker
Andrew Rambaut
Topics
Vaccines

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to befast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed.

In context

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  1. 2021-01-10 11:17 Andrew Rambaut open
    Yes. Confidentially this has come from Manaus - i.e., super high seroprevalence.
  2. 2021-01-10 11:27 Robert F. Garry open
    Oh my - that's concerning if this is what emerges out of close to "herd immunity."
  3. 2021-01-10 11:32 Andrew Rambaut
    That is the main point - close to herd immunity is the worst for selecting for escape. Why vaccination needs to befast and comprehensive. Its also why I am going more in favour of delaying second dose if you can get universal coverage quickly but the worse would be slow and delayed.
  4. 2021-01-10 11:39 Robert F. Garry open
    How about splitting up the doses? Like they have done for smallpox...
  5. 2021-01-10 11:41 Robert F. Garry open
    "Slow and delayed" is definitely the Trump approach.
  6. 2021-01-10 12:07 Robert F. Garry open
    This might be worth considering and based on the above there is not a minor chance of this making it worse. Nevertheless - Looking back at least at the Pfizer vaccine they got very similar immunological/neut results with 10,20 and 30 ug doses - yet they went with the 30 ug dose in the phase 2/3. Don't know why. The pfizer vaccine isdiluted to about 2 ml per vial. 0.3ml dose. 5-6 doses per vial. I bet based on the Phase I you could double thevolume of the diluent and inject 0.2 mls instead of 0.3 mls and get similar immunity. That's 15-18 doses per vialinstead of 5-6.
  7. 2021-01-10 12:12 Robert F. Garry open
    Yes - risky!

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