A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it
answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.
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I'm gonna break reviewer privacy because it's relevant to share an title of an article I just this minute was asked toreview: "Hypothesis of Potential Evolution of SARS-CoV-2 through Hybridization of SARS-CoV-1 withSaccharomyces cerevisiae and Mycobacterium avium naturally inside an immunocompromised Pangolin" Incredible.
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The next data point that's going to be super critical is IF we start to see vaccine breakthrough with the UK variant. Ithink enough people have been vaccinated in the UK to perhaps start to see a trend.
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I'm not so sure immune selection isn't showing an appreciable selection pressure - "phase change" might be a little too strong, however, I think it could already be one of the most selective forces. We'll see. Bob - yeah, Doug had higher viral loads too, but much less of a dramatic difference than Nelly. Of course, the plot we're looking at here is Doug vs Nelly - Nelly vs Hugo (Hu-1..) would be even more dramatic.
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Indeed -here's one of many Hugo vs Doug (Genome copies not Ct) ~1 log whereas Nelly vs Doug is ~2 Logs on average it seems: [shared file(s): image.png]
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2021-01-10 07:21
Robert F. Garry
This is just the URT (nasal) I think data in the lung not as dramatic if any change at all (need lung data for Nelly, Eeek and Pooh) - worth noting Doug alone is easier to neutralize.
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My prediction is that B.1.1.7 will turn out to be more transmissible because of the 501Y with the other stuff (FCS, deletions etc) - and it arose because of an extraordinary circumstances. But the Brazilian and RSA variants will turn out to be doing well because they are fitter in the very high (and underestimated) existing seroprevalence in those places. So they will pop up every where but are unlikely to really take off in places with lower seroprevalence (or atleast no more likely than anything else).
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But that means they will soon be fitter in other places like USA and Europe unless things improve quickly.
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Yeah, very reasonable. It's unclear to me if B.1.1.7 might also have an "immunity" phenotype - a lot is said about the RSA variant in that regard, but that's because we have _data_ on E484K, but for B.1.1.7 we don't have anything yet. Also, Eeek is already in B.1.1.7 as you say....
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Oh, and to the last part - things over here won't improve quickly, unfortunately. It's rapidly deteriorating - without the effect of the new lineages.