Slack / Private Message Drop — page 374

[2021-01-10 07:04:10] [Kristian Andersen] I'm not so sure immune selection isn't showing an appreciable selection pressure - "phase change" might be a little too strong, however, I think it could already be one of the most selective forces. We'll see. Bob - yeah, Doug had higher viral loads too, but much less of a dramatic difference than Nelly. Of course, the plot we're looking at here is Doug vs Nelly - Nelly vs Hugo (Hu-1..) would be even more dramatic. [2021-01-10 07:19:06] [Robert Garry] Indeed -here's one of many Hugo vs Doug (Genome copies not Ct) ~1 log whereas Nelly vs Doug is ~2 Logs on average it seems: [shared file(s): image.png] [2021-01-10 07:21:54] [Robert Garry] This is just the URT (nasal) I think data in the lung not as dramatic if any change at all (need lung data for Nelly, Eeek and Pooh) - worth noting Doug alone is easier to neutralize. [2021-01-10 07:32:42] [Andrew Rambaut] My prediction is that B.1.1.7 will turn out to be more transmissible because of the 501Y with the other stuff (FCS, deletions etc) - and it arose because of an extraordinary circumstances. But the Brazilian and RSA variants will turn out to be doing well because they are fitter in the very high (and underestimated) existing seroprevalence in those places. So they will pop up every where but are unlikely to really take off in places with lower seroprevalence (or at least no more likely than anything else). [2021-01-10 07:33:36] [Andrew Rambaut] But that means they will soon be fitter in other places like USA and Europe unless things improve quickly. [2021-01-10 07:53:40] [Kristian Andersen] Yeah, very reasonable. It's unclear to me if B.1.1.7 might also have an "immunity" phenotype - a lot is said about the RSA variant in that regard, but that's because we have _data_ on E484K, but for B.1.1.7 we don't have anything yet. Also, Eeek is already in B.1.1.7 as you say.... [2021-01-10 07:56:03] [Kristian Andersen] Oh, and to the last part - things over here won't improve quickly, unfortunately. It's rapidly deteriorating - without the effect of the new lineages. [2021-01-10 08:09:52] [Robert Garry] Students are coming back to Tulane campus - there is an almost desperate attempt to get one of the vaccine manufacturers to vaccinate all or at least part of the undergraduate students for the purposes of doing an vaccine efficacy study. It'ds almost as good as a challenge trial because the undergrads will be tested 2-3 times per week. So far pushback, because corporate think. I don't think they want to know or are afraid to even raise the question hence the Nelly study above. Most of the medical faculty and some of the med students and residents have already gotten the first doses. Faculty, staff, med students, residents and grad students are getting the Pfizer vaccine next week. [2021-01-10 08:21:11] [Andrew Rambaut] [thread - ID: 2021-01-10 08:21:11] Eddie, you don't look too happy at the prospect of lunch, I think: [2021-01-10 08:21:19]