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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.371 [SLACK_000585] · slack_pm:msg:03863

Page text: p.371 · original PDF

Date: 2021-01-09 08:17
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry

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@Robert Garry That would be ironic if that likely super-spreader event spreads a new "super" variant.

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2021-01-09 08:00 Andrew Rambaut open

This is the new USA cluster with Eeek and Pooh: [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-01-09 08:11 Robert F. Garry open

All in Maryland? Worth keeping an eye on it for sure...
2021-01-09 08:12 Andrew Rambaut open

This one only has 484K but spans 4 months and 4 states: [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-01-09 08:14 Andrew Rambaut open

@Robert Garry Perhaps it was around the Capitol on Tuesday
2021-01-09 08:17 Robert F. Garry

@Robert Garry That would be ironic if that likely super-spreader event spreads a new "super" variant.
2021-01-09 08:21 Robert F. Garry open

Eaak and Pooh are the ones that worry me the most. I think we're in for a wild ride
2021-01-09 08:36 Andrew Rambaut open

I am trying to decide if this is a 'phase-change' in the evolution of the virus (i.e., driven by standing immunity) or is itjust that now there are simple enough cases that these combinations (of previously individual mutations) are startingto appear together and so the synergies are apparent.
2021-01-09 08:56 Robert F. Garry open

I would not rule out that some of the Pooh-related mutations are immune driven as well - some of the christmas card mutations near the FCS could well be epitopes.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0238089
2021-01-09 09:14 Robert F. Garry open

I wouldn't rule-out a phase change. The UK and ZA variants feel like some nonlinear processes occurring. Epistasisis a real thing. Did Doug somehow open the floodgates enabling Nelly, Eeek and Pooh and multiple combinations?On the "up" side it seems to me that at least that a pattern of hotspots for mutations (Xmas card) are starting toemerge. New sampling of the combos as you document above does seem like an ongoing and perhaps acceleratingprocess. Looking ahead I worry about the fertile ground of Africa which has been largely spared being more susceptible to a Phase II variant.

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