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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.361 [SLACK_000575] · slack_pm:msg:03764

Date: 2021-01-05 16:13
Type: chat message · slack
mentioned: Kristian G. Andersen
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Robert F. Garry
Topics: Vaccines

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I know it's obvious but the problem comes when you start stacking up the mutations. 1.This is a pathogen that puts>20 glycans per monomer. There aren't going to be that many protective epitopes. So knock out 1, 2 or 3 and yeah the efficacy of any vaccine is going to take a hit. Knock efficacy below 50% and herd immunity is a long slowcrawl. 2. I also agree with @Kristian Andersen that looking at the Christmas card several of the mutations maybe are just kicking up fitness. The fact that the same site in a ZA variant was targeted for an insertion _in vitro_ [e.g. noimmune selection] D215G is bothersome. The FCS is already there.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
So knock out 1, 2 or 3 and yeah the efficacy of any vaccine is going to take a hit.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external attribution frame: 'per'	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

So knock out 1, 2 or 3 and yeah the efficacy of any vaccine is going to take a hit.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external attribution frame: 'per'

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-01-05 15:24 Edward C. Holmes open

I agree Kristian - great work, but I'm not hugely reassured at all. I suspect there will be more data coming from theUK soon.
2021-01-05 15:24 Edward C. Holmes open

@Robert Garry Really, really stupid...
2021-01-05 16:13 Robert F. Garry

I know it's obvious but the problem comes when you start stacking up the mutations. 1.This is a pathogen that puts>20 glycans per monomer. There aren't going to be that many protective epitopes. So knock out 1, 2 or 3 and yeah the efficacy of any vaccine is going to take a hit. Knock efficacy below 50% and herd immunity is a long slowcrawl. 2. I also agree with @Kristian Andersen that looking at the Christmas card several of the mutations maybe are just kicking up fitness. The fact that the same site in a ZA variant was targeted for an insertion _in vitro_ [e.g. noimmune selection] D215G is bothersome. The FCS is already there.
2021-01-05 16:18 Robert F. Garry open

I been looking but can find any examples of insertions in cell culture or in humans. Maybe I don't knoew how to look. Several in-frame deletions of course. I think this justifies putting out the insertion at 215 at least in a virological post....

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