Slack / Private Message Drop — page 361

[2021-01-05 15:24:39] [Eddie Holmes] I agree Kristian - great work, but I'm not hugely reassured at all. I suspect there will be more data coming from the UK soon. [2021-01-05 15:24:56] [Eddie Holmes] [thread - ID: 2021-01-05 04:29:03] @Robert Garry Really, really stupid... [2021-01-05 16:13:34] [Robert Garry] I know it's obvious but the problem comes when you start stacking up the mutations. 1.This is a pathogen that puts >20 glycans per monomer. There aren't going to be that many protective epitopes. So knock out 1, 2 or 3 and yeah the efficacy of any vaccine is going to take a hit. Knock efficacy below 50% and herd immunity is a long slow crawl. 2. I also agree with @Kristian Andersen that looking at the Christmas card several of the mutations maybe are just kicking up fitness. The fact that the same site in a ZA variant was targeted for an insertion _in vitro_ [e.g. no immune selection] D215G is bothersome. The FCS is already there. [2021-01-05 16:18:39] [Robert Garry] I been looking but can find any examples of insertions in cell culture or in humans. Maybe I don't knoew how to look. Several in-frame deletions of course. I think this justifies putting out the insertion at 215 at least in a virological post.... [2021-01-05 17:44:08] [Kristian Andersen] @Robert Garry - Karthik and Al are looking at all the T/C data from GISAID right now and comparing to the SA lineage. They might ping you... [2021-01-05 22:52:49] [Kristian Andersen] https://twitter.com/Rossana38510044/status/1346687589647081473?s=20 [2021-01-05 23:08:40] [Eddie Holmes] I saw. No idea what subsequent work he is talking about. [2021-01-05 23:43:17] [Eddie Holmes] Glad Jessie agrees that RaTG13 is not the direct ancestor. That's a very important point that rules out most of the conspiracy theories. He suggests there's another unsequenced virus that's the source of SARS-CoV-2. Obviously impossible to rule that out, but Shi sequenced RaTG13 years ago in the guise of RaTG13 in the guise of BtCoV/4991. Why wouldn't Shi have published the sequences of any viruses from that cave at that earlier time? Why only BtCoV/4991 which then later turns out to be the closest relative? And if these unsequenced viruses that are true of cause SARS-CoV-2 exist in the WIV then they also exist in far less regulated environments in caves in Yunnan province. [2021-01-06 07:23:21] [Robert Garry] [thread - ID: 2021-01-06 07:23:21] This sums it up perfectly Eddie. You really have to go full-on into the DRASTIC bizarro scenario that WIV in fact did have the 99+% virus and somehow they knew that it was or could become an ideal human pathogen. What possible reason could Shi have for covering up the existence of a closer SARSr-CoV than RaTG13? You have to believe that they were tuning this particular virus up by passaging in cell culture and/or inserting the FCS, when they inadvertently released it on the world through a lab accident. To cover this up Shi then fabricated RaTG13 (96%)