Private channel session 1664

11 messages over 1h 19m, 2021-12-01 – 2021-12-01.

A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.

1. 2021-12-01 14:09 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1036
   @Andrew Rambaut - thoughts? https://twitter.com/sebduchene/status/1466161635056254983?s=20. Wildly different estimates, but it's from Sebastian...
2. 2021-12-01 14:21 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1036
   He probably has the bullshit Italian genomes in there. And the South African ones called for reference
3. 2021-12-01 14:36 Edward C. Holmes open PDF p.1036
   Sorry, I asked the same question in the other channel before spotting this. I assumed there was an error somewhere.
4. 2021-12-01 14:40 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1036
   Just ran BEAST again and now I am getting lower rates and older TMRCA: 2021-10-07 (2021-09-26, 2021-10-18)
5. 2021-12-01 14:40 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1036
   Doubling time: 6.7 days (4.7-11.7)
6. 2021-12-01 14:40 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1036
   R: 1.62 (1.34, 1.92)
7. 2021-12-01 14:41 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1036
   (but nothing like Sebastian)
8. 2021-12-01 14:43 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1037
   Heh - strange. Given the epi data out of RSA right now though, I'm leaning towards a more recent estimate (and lower doubling time) being the most likely scenario.
9. 2021-12-01 15:23 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1037
   Andrew - are you okay with me introducing you to the NYC WW folks to compare notes? I realize mentioning the UK stuff might not have been that smart, but I have heard it from a few people. Is there anybody overseeing the wastewater efforts?
10. 2021-12-01 15:27 Andrew Rambaut open PDF p.1037
    Nick Loman has eyes on the WW
11. 2021-12-01 15:28 Kristian G. Andersen open PDF p.1037
    Seems fitting :wink:. Lemme ping Nick first.