Private channel session 1379
26 messages over 1h 31m, 2021-05-15 – 2021-05-15.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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I've got to give this named lecture (relatively big locally) in a few weeks. I don't not sure whether I should: (a) ignore lab escape, (b) mention it's deficiencies politely, or (c) say fuck it and rip to shreds. I'm tempted by (c). I've been advised to keep off Twitter because of this pending FOI court case.
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Definitely (c). Here - start with this: https://docs.google.com/document/d/17btNILyJFQccKCg7xAwETRN5LWo9g6A_haWubrywwIU/edit?usp=sharing
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Still working on this document, but I think we have a logical structure now and most of the evidence put in. Let's turn this into a talk (you), Twitter thread (me), and then a paper.
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I'll doodle over this this coming week, adding references, more points, etc. - but if we could all add to it, then I thinkwe have a very good start. One thing we need to see if we can more specifically address - Wuhan. People just can't get over the fact it started there and then they don't look at any of the additional evidence.
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Right. I'll go over the google doc later today. There's no epidemiological link to the WIV (and people have beensearching night and day for > a year). Simple as that. But there is a direct epidemiological link to an animal market in which CoVs have consistently emerged in the past. There is zero evidence that WIV have any virus that's the direct progenitor of SC2.
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Yup
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I'll go for a public take down. It will probably go on Youtube so all the parasites will freak out but, frankly, fuck them.
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CoV-HKU1 was first described in Shenzhen.
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So we really need to answer the question - how unusual is Wuhan for something like this to happen? I don't think very unusual - animal markets, top-10 largest city, largest city in central China, etc.
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Really?
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC538593/
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... and SARS-CoV-1 in Foshan. I mean, these are big places - like Wuhan.
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HKU-1. 1. Emerged in massive Asian city; 2. Unknown animal origin; 3. Furin cleavage site; 4. Initially associated with pneumonia. Sound familiar?
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FUCK EDDIE - THAT CAME FROM THE LAB TOO??!!!!!!!!
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It's the same thing all over again.
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It is! I've mentioned HKU1 in virtually every talk I've given over the last 14 months. Just look at that JVI paper. You could just transpose SARS-CoV-2 for CoV-HKU1.
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Yeah, reading it now - it really is exactly the same story all over again. Except, more benign virus.
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This is good - because if we can kill the "Wuhan isn't so special", it'll help turn over a lot of people. Would also help ifwe had a good sense of where major labs are.
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Initially a pneumonia patient.
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As there was no major outbreak of pneumonia people lost interest, but it's all there.
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That's the thing - there's a huge bias towards "something odd here" when things go wrong. But HKU1 is exactly the same - minus severe disease. I can guarantee you that if H1N1 had been worse, the lab leak theory of its origin would also not have gone away.
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Totally. I think the HKU1 story is hugely instructive.
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Eddie - would it be possible to get some data on wildlife markets in China from your contacts? Maybe that journo? I'm wondering if we could plot number or markets (or similar) across a map and show an association. Would be_hugely_ instructive, but I have no idea if Wuhan is special, or not, when it comes to these types of markets.
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I'll see what I can do.
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I swear, if we can nail the "Wuhan" part, our job will be done.
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Yes, need to show it is not special.