Private channel session 745
13 messages over 1h 37m, 2021-01-02 – 2021-01-02.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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He is just trying to squirm out of the hole he dug himself.
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Both lineages clearly do stand out. Sure there are a handful of individual sequences that stick out as much but Isuspect most of these are from those immunocompromised patient papers like the one in NEJM
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Sometimes it's so much easier to just say "shit, I was wrong", instead of proving that you're ignorant to basic phylogenetics and epi. It's a little shocking to be honest - I mean, the guy's been writing papers on this stuff...
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Spoke to the Danes this morning and saw some additional data not yet public - essentially the same picture as theUK, so this looks to be real-real. @Andrew Rambaut - they mentioned that the UK had tested the virus against convalescent plasma and there was_no_ effect on neutralization? I'm not quite sure that has actually been done yet - do you know?
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I have not heard the neutralization information yet - but I have been off the daily calls. I guess this was done in PHEColindale so they may have talked to Denmark directly.
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Just been chatting with Mads and have offered to help them set up a simple BEAST run to estimate the growth rate for the initial stages. Might be a bit too little data just now.
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They clearly have one main lineage that is growing (and a handful of other introductions that are probably going nowhere).
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Thanks Andrew - I suspect they might have talked to them directly, or they're just going with what Twitter is saying since people are confused... It'd be great if the DK folks could get a little help setting up BEAST. I enquired this morning about their ability to use the genomics directly to estimate growth rates and they seemed very confused - I honestly don't think there's asingle person in DK who knows how to run it. Amazing dataset though! Separately, I'm talking to Mads' boss, so I'll mention the need to use the genomics data more directly as well.
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Btw - that NYT article is really really good! Haven't read the AP one...
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Frankie is indeed a total twat. I can't stand to even think about him. Agree about the NYT article. I spent a lot of time talking to them. They've got loads of data from December and earlier. Clearly zero evidence for a lab escape and there were was zero chat about it in China at the time. The WHO team are leaving this week. Seems to me it isgoing to be a complete waste of time because they are not going to talk to the key people. China is just going topush the 'it's not China' line.
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Yeah, I think people who keep insisting that all this weirdness from China MUST be because it came from a lab just don't understand outbreak response - it's not, it's just politics and power play. We see this every damn time there'san outbreak - I'm sure @Robert Garry remember when he got his visa pulled for sniffing around too much... :wink:
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Not ideal, by no means, but it's not exactly 'weird' or 'unusual' - it's just the typical bullshit.
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Yes, in this case it is Xi Jinping pushing the 'it's not from China' line in an attempt to restore some domestic pride inChina. I'm sure he's saying this to bolster his own popularity at home rather than for international politics.