Slack / Private Message Drop — page 594

Seems to me - given the smoking raccoon dog - low Cts from the grate indicating the animals were infected that it is a LOT more likely that the animal or animals infected the humans in the market instead of the other way around. Most likely scenario for the 30 cases linked to the market is a human-to-human super-spreader type event. Just can't really see multiple ppl individually getting infected from a few caged animals. [2021-03-14 14:28:37] [Robert Garry] Assuming a. human to animal transmission is an unlikely explanation for the smoking raccoon dog and b. that lineage A gave rise to lineage B, this suggests that the 2 or 3 snps that converted lineage A to B happened via animal-to-animal transmission in a batch of animals that includes some animals that ended up in the Hubai market and some animals that ended up elsewhere. The Hubai market animal initiated the lineage B human-to-human transmissions. The hypothetical group of other animals initiated the lineage A human-to-human transmission. The animal-to-animal transmissions that created the 2 or 3 snps that converted lineage A to B could have been completely in the wild or after the animals were trapped and hauled to market. If in the wild it means that lineage A and B viruses are circulating and it just happened that a lineage A and a lineage B animal were both were trapped at about the same time initiating separate SC2 outbreaks within weeks of each other. On the other hand I can easily see one infected animal infecting another during transport and separate distribution to a couple of markets in Wuhan. [2021-03-14 14:33:22] [Robert Garry] Either this or the nefarious virologists at the WIV engineered two lineages of SC2 and in a moment of inspiration to cover up their genocidal plan decided to infect a bunch of animals in the Hubai market with lineage B SC2 and a bunch of other unsuspecting civilians in Wuhan with lineage A SC2. [2021-03-14 15:05:36] [Robert Garry] https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9359039/WHO-set-reject-Wuhan-lab-link-Covid-outbreak-instead-point-sou rce-animal-market.html [2021-03-14 15:26:03] [Eddie Holmes] Cue outrage. Bob - I'll look at your other questions shortly. [2021-03-14 16:24:59] [Robert Garry] Daily Mail is not too reliable. However, if I'm reading the signals from Koopmans and Daszak right, the smoking dog is gonna be big in the report.. I do think that the sequence - if they have it - of the environmental sample from the grate would be very good to have. Low Ct as Koopsman said there's a good chance they got sequence from it. [2021-03-14 16:29:14] [Robert Garry] Just the fact that they got sequences at all from environmental samples (some of which they grow in culture) means that there was quite a bit of virus there. Hard to see how this much virus comes from probably more or less healthy humans taking a stroll in the market to pick up some food for dinner. [2021-03-14 16:29:34] [Eddie Holmes] shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-03-15 at 10.28.45 am.png [2021-03-14 16:34:00] [Eddie Holmes] [thread - ID: 2021-03-14 16:34:00] Under this scenario it's impossible to disprove anything. [2021-03-14 16:37:34] [Robert Garry]