Slack / Private Message Drop — page 465

[2021-01-30 05:55:33] [Robert Garry] Definitely think that the Novavax and J&J results are a wake-up call! I think Tony F/Biden are going to get them moving - pretty sure of that. I think we said it more than a month back that *expectations for the vaccines were sky high and that needed to be walked back.* if Moderna and Pfizer trials had been run in ZA or Brazil I don't think their results would have been much different than Novavax and J&J. That being said I am starting to take a little more comfort with the 57% number - NO not great - BUT if that comes with enough decrease in virus load to knock R down below 1 even for the variants (DATA PLEASE) then produce the hell out of Novavax and J&J and vaccinate. J&J says they can do a billion doses in a few months. START UPDATING ALL THE VACCINES *NOW*! [2021-01-30 06:43:24] [Robert Garry] I could not bring myself to watch this garbage all the way through, but clearly the lab theory coming from both sides https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZMGWLLDSA3c: [2021-01-30 07:47:16] [Kristian Andersen] 50% effective vaccine in 50% of people.... I don't expect much help from the vaccine in buckling the trend in cases, but I _do_ expect it'll make quite a big difference in hospitalizations and that's incredibly important. So I agree that this is far from bad news, however, we need to get back into the 90% efficacy rang (with effectiveness hopefully closely matching that) to really turn the tides on the virus. We absolutely need updated vaccines for that - plus, I might be totally wrong about the lowered hospitalizations... That's interesting about H655Y in mice and it's pathogenic effect. I was talking to Mike Osterholm earlier in the week, who clearly has the best intel on what's happing out in the world, and it seems that they're getting information suggesting that P.1 might be quite a lot more severe than good old Doug. That would not be good. [2021-01-30 08:45:15] [Robert Garry] Oh and I put the gorilla on the Christmas card - turns out I couldn't help myself... [2021-01-30 08:51:56] [Robert Garry] I know - impulsive-compulsive. [2021-01-30 10:19:45] [Kristian Andersen] Watched the Bill Maher clip - total nonsense. [2021-01-30 10:38:28] [Robert Garry] Indeed - and not nearly as entertaining as Bannon and Guo. [2021-01-30 10:40:03] [Kristian Andersen] Agreed - it's just really dumb and uninformed. Would it have hurt to crack a joke or two? Or maybe just show up completely stoned? Seriously, get in the game man. [2021-01-30 10:56:56] [Robert Garry] It will be also curious to see what Petrovsky says on 60 minutes - V1 and V2 of his in silico paper are pretty differenthttps://arxiv.org/abs/2005.06199v1 V1 and V2 are of course sandwiched by him going all over Australian TV: [shared file(s): image.png] [2021-01-30 11:04:19] [Robert Garry]