Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.1118-1119 [SLACK_001332] · slack_pm:msg:11680

Page text: p.1118, p.1119 · original PDF

Date: 2022-05-31 13:15
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Kristian G. Andersen
Topics: Furin cleavage site and molecular features Natural origin / zoonotic spillover

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Our Feb 6 conclusion, btw. ```"The evolution scenarios discussed above are largely indistinguishable and current data are consistent with all three. It is currently impossible to prove or disprove either, and it is unclear whether future data or analyses will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and obtaining virus sequences from it wouldbe the most definitive way of distinguishing the three scenarios. The main limitation of what is described here is our clear ascertainment bias. We are looking for features orevolutionary aspects that could help explain how 2019-nCoV lead to such a rapidly expanding human epidemic, yet the specific features we are trying to find may be the exact features one would expect in a virus that could lead to anepidemic of the magnitude currently observed. Before 2019-nCoV 'took off' and started the current epidemic, it isplausible that many stuttering transmission chains of highly similar viruses could have entered the human population, but because they never took off they were never sampled. It is extremely important to keep this in mindas any inference about the plausibility of various scenarios about the evolution and/or epidemic potential of2019-nCoV is attempted.To further clarify the evolutionary origins and functional features of 2019-nCoV it would be helpful to obtain additional data about the virus - both genetic and functional. This includes experimental studies of receptor binding and the role of the furin cleavage site and predicted O-linked glycans. The identification of a potential intermediate host of 2019-nCoV as well as sequencing of very early cases, including those not connected to the market, could also help refute the passage scenario described above. Even in the light of such data, however, it is not guaranteed that data can be obtained to conclusively prove all aspects of the initial emergence of 2019-nCoV."```

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
The identification of a potential intermediate host of 2019-nCoV as well as sequencing of very early cases, including those not connected to the market, could also help refute the passage scenario described above.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external inside quotation marks	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

The identification of a potential intermediate host of 2019-nCoV as well as sequencing of very early cases, including those not connected to the market, could also help refute the passage scenario described above.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external inside quotation marks

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2022-05-31 13:12 Robert F. Garry open

good job on the R2R - anything else a red flag?
2022-05-31 13:13 Kristian G. Andersen open

Nope, we're good with the R2R - just need to make sure the right figures/tables are included. Everything else readyto go - just waiting for Mike to push the button.
2022-05-31 13:14 Robert F. Garry open

Somehow I think this was harder than it had to be - but good to be at this point...
2022-05-31 13:14 Kristian G. Andersen open

Agreed...
2022-05-31 13:15 Kristian G. Andersen

Our Feb 6 conclusion, btw. ```"The evolution scenarios discussed above are largely indistinguishable and current data are consistent with all three. It is currently impossible to prove or disprove either, and it is unclear whether future data or analyses will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and obtaining virus sequences from it wouldbe the most definitive way of distinguishing the three scenarios. The main limitation of what is described here is our clear ascertainment bias. We are looking for features orevolutionary aspects that could help explain how 2019-nCoV lead to such a rapidly expanding human epidemic, yet the specific features we are trying to find may be the exact features one would expect in a virus that could lead to anepidemic of the magnitude currently observed. Before 2019-nCoV 'took off' and started the current epidemic, it isplausible that many stuttering transmission chains of highly similar viruses could have entered the human population, but because they never took off they were never sampled. It is extremely important to keep this in mindas any inference about the plausibility of various scenarios about the evolution and/or epidemic potential of2019-nCoV is attempted.To further clarify the evolutionary origins and functional features of 2019-nCoV it would be helpful to obtain additional data about the virus - both genetic and functional. This includes experimental studies of receptor binding and the role of the furin cleavage site and predicted O-linked glycans. The identification of a potential intermediate host of 2019-nCoV as well as sequencing of very early cases, including those not connected to the market, could also help refute the passage scenario described above. Even in the light of such data, however, it is not guaranteed that data can be obtained to conclusively prove all aspects of the initial emergence of 2019-nCoV."```
2022-05-31 13:16 Kristian G. Andersen open

But, we were settled on "engineering" at that point. ```Analysis of the virus genome sequences clearly demonstrates that the virus is not a laboratory construct or experimentally manipulated virus```
2022-05-31 13:18 Robert F. Garry open

Yup - the multi-transfer hypothesis - I think this got cut from PO1 - brilliant though in hindsight...
2022-05-31 13:21 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yup - we were on-point pretty darn quickly. Honestly, the way I remember it, it took us longer - but those were someveeeeeeeeeeeery long days, I do remember that!
2022-05-31 13:25 Robert F. Garry open

what's remarkable is the amt of speculation about that call and then PO1 itself - just crazy. But, I suspect we'll get torevisit all this again - and then probably again - under oath...which will be just fine...

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