Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.722 [SLACK_000936] · slack_pm:msg:07581

Date: 2021-04-21 08:42
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut
Topics: Intelligence community assessments

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

So much convergence and parallel mutations and spike mutational 'bursts' now I think we have to move beyond trying to find a special explanation for B.1.1.7

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
So much convergence and parallel mutations and spike mutational 'bursts' now I think we have to move beyond trying to find a special explanation for B.1.1.7	needs context	uncertain explicit hedge	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

So much convergence and parallel mutations and spike mutational 'bursts' now I think we have to move beyond trying to find a special explanation for B.1.1.7

needs context

uncertain explicit hedge

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2021-04-21 08:19 Andrew Rambaut open

(apart from the recombinants)
2021-04-21 08:20 Andrew Rambaut open

However, if DRASTIC is going down this route (that B.1.1.7 was actually constructed) they are just revealing themselves to be the nutters they are to the people who have been taking them seriously.
2021-04-21 08:21 Andrew Rambaut open

Let them dig their hole. Give them a spade
2021-04-21 08:38 Kristian G. Andersen open

For the animal epizootic - I agree that we should see violations of tree structure if new mutations kept cropping upand spilling over from an animal reservoir. Thing is though, looking at the mink example from Denmark, the virus was flowing freely between the two hosts, making it impossible to figure out what was mink derived and what was human. We saw convergent evolution between DK and NL mink, so that made us believe mutations fixed in the mink population - so I'm not convinced we can _rule out_ a potential animal reservoir for e.g., B.1.1.7? Clearly, almost all(>99.99%) new B.1.1.7 infections are caused by human-to-human, but can we rule out that there isn't also apersistent non-human reservoir too? Could be small and limited, and of course, the virus would move from humans into that reservoir too.I agree, definitely not as likely as the alternative hypothesis, but this thing keeps surprising me, so I hate rulingthings out...
2021-04-21 08:42 Andrew Rambaut

So much convergence and parallel mutations and spike mutational 'bursts' now I think we have to move beyond trying to find a special explanation for B.1.1.7
2021-04-21 08:43 Kristian G. Andersen open

True. SLACK_000937
2021-04-21 08:43 Robert F. Garry open

Angie fights back https:/www.nature.con/articles/s41591-021-01314-9
2021-04-21 08:43 Robert F. Garry open

Concerted attack on AR by DRASTIC - Yuri claims he's the victim.
2021-04-21 08:43 Robert F. Garry open

And in related news - Alina still with the attacks on Eddie and the Pango papers - but - of course - call her out for herbullying and she plays the victim. Gullible journos eat it up or in the case of some (e.g. Jackson Ryan) get into the act as well. Truly Focanuba. [shared file(s): image.png, image.png]

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