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1. 2021-02-20 08:20 Andrew Rambaut open
   This would be an explosively political hypothesis given all the anti-lockdown stuff going on.
2. 2021-02-20 08:25 Kristian G. Andersen open
   I agree with the first part - not sure about the VOCs. I think the selection pressure there is more complicated with RSA/BRA selecting more for evasion, than inherent transmission. The fixation of mutations was probably due tointrahost selection, but I agree the near-fixation in the population likely has more to do with transmission (in apopulation with high levels of immunity - so reinfections).
3. 2021-02-20 08:27 Kristian G. Andersen open
   B.1.1.7 just looks different to me - again, mutations fixed intrahost in the first place, then near-fixation in the population because of being inherently more transmissible. I think partial immune escape adds to its success aswell.
4. 2021-02-20 08:28 Kristian G. Andersen open
   But overall, yes, I agree with the hypothesis and think the distinction of different waves being due to differentmitigation efforts is a good one - but as you say, massively politically charged.The fourth wave will likely be driven almost entirely by vaccine escape.
5. 2021-02-20 08:29 Robert F. Garry
   Makes a lot of sense to me.
6. 2021-02-20 08:30 Kristian G. Andersen open
   (this ain't the flu, btw). Bob, I'll look at the document today!
7. 2021-02-20 09:18 Andrew Rambaut open
   @Kristian Andersen I generally agree - I am 100% convinced that B.1.1.7 is different from everything in its origin story but has converged on the same peak.
8. 2021-02-20 09:23 Andrew Rambaut open
   I guess the first question to demonstrate is that has there been a shift in the adaptive landscape (rather than just alot more unusual stuff happening because there are shed loads of cases - although that too). Possible reasons for awide-spread shift in the population level landscapes are 1) NPI, 2) deployment of anti-viral treatments, 3) increasing seroprevalence 4) ? anything else? Then there is the possibility of a shift in within host landscapes - more chronic infections, possibly inimmuno-compromised, possibly treated. Here it is a numbers game - more infections mean more of these and more chance some of them hit this population-fit fitness peak and then transmit onwards.
9. 2021-02-20 09:38 Kristian G. Andersen open
   Yeah, these are good - I think very likely #1 (broadly defined) and #3 - not sure about #2.

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