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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.410 [SLACK_000624] · slack_pm:msg:04235

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It's a hopelessly naive statement.

In context

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2021-01-16 10:01 Robert F. Garry open

Here's the article FWIW. Really fair and balanced in a Fox news kinda way... [shared file(s): The World Needs a Real Investigation Into the Origins of Covid-19 - WSJ.pdf]
2021-01-16 11:01 Robert F. Garry open

Oh Jesse... [shared file(s): image.png]
2021-01-16 11:06 Kristian G. Andersen

It's a hopelessly naive statement.
2021-01-16 11:07 Robert F. Garry open

https://mbio.asm.org/content/6/4/e01013-15 The types of lab release scenarios that Chan is describing aren't closeto what happened in 1977 H1N1.
2021-01-16 11:10 Kristian G. Andersen open

Correct. But what's most important here - and I have mentioned this to Jesse - you can't just look at flu pandemics -you need to look at emergence events. How many natural emergence events are there vs those linked to the lab?
2021-01-16 11:12 Kristian G. Andersen open

It's misleading and inappropriate for people like Jesse to make these statements - it makes it sound as if our prior probability of lab escape would be 0.2. It's many orders of magnitude lower than that. Sure, the fact that WIV was/isdoing work on SARS-like CoVs elevates that prior probability (but a lot), but it still gets it nowhere near the "50/50"scenario Jesse is talking about. He of all people should know that.
2021-01-16 11:15 Kristian G. Andersen open

All these folks are stuck in their inappropriate priors and not updating them based on data. It's rather sad, really.