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1. 2020-12-20 12:31 Edward C. Holmes
   Thanks Bob, a lot to think about.
2. 2020-12-20 13:10 Kristian G. Andersen open
   Thanks Bob - this is very helpful. One nagging question I have is that it doesn't seem to me that N501Y _alone_ can explain the 'spreader' phenotype, yet, the lineages in the UK and SA are quite distinct - and as far as I can tell, only share N501Y. However, it's entirely plausible that different mutations can lead to similar conformational changes, that might give the virus a 'spreader' phenotype if N501Y pops up on that genetic backbone.We have seen N501Y before (e.g., Australia), but I don't know that any of those are associated with increased spread? With that said, Australia isn't exactly representative when it comes to the question of spread, and I don't believe N501Y has been observed in that many places (I think just random stray sequences here and there)
3. 2020-12-20 13:16 Andrew Rambaut open
   There are actually 2 501Y lineages in the UK - the other one in South Wales (now up to about 500 genomes but associated with a hospital outbreak as well). Again only N501Y in common. As you say - there was a cluster in Australia - 37 genomes from beginning of June to beginning of July.
4. 2020-12-20 13:18 Kristian G. Andersen open
   I missed that - I thought same lineage, but two separate emergence events (from a common source, I assumed). ButI see the differences on Emma's Nextstrain build - very interesting.
5. 2020-12-20 13:19 Andrew Rambaut open
   There are 5 from Massachusetts with a shit load of mutations

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