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Slack / Private Message Drop, pp.143-144 [SLACK_000357] · slack_pm:msg:01474

Date: 2020-08-24 04:10
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut
Topics: Masks, lockdowns and NPIs Intelligence community assessments

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

Koonin doing mad stuff again... ```Prediction of the incubation period for COVID-19 and future virus disease outbreaks Ayal B Gussow; Noam Auslander; Yuri I Wolf; Eugene Koonin Research article Abstract: Background: A crucial factor in mitigating respiratory viral outbreaks is early determination of the durationof the incubation period and, accordingly, the required quarantine time for potentially exposed individuals. During the COVID-19 pandemic, optimization of quarantine regimes becomes paramount for public health, societal well-being and the global economy. However, the biological factors that determine the duration of the virus incubation period remain poorly understood.Results: We demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the length of the incubation period and diseaseseverity for a wide range of human pathogenic viruses. Using a machine learning approach, we develop a predictivemodel that accurately estimates, solely from several virus genome features such as the number of protein-codinggenes and the GC-content, the incubation time ranges for diverse human pathogenic RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2. The predictive approach described here can directly help in establishing the appropriate quarantinedurations and thus facilitate controlling future outbreaks. Conclusions: Perhaps, surprisingly, incubation times of pathogenic RNA viruses can be accurately predicted solelyfrom generic features of virus genomes. Elucidation of the biological underpinnings of the connection between these features and disease progression can be expected to reveal key aspects of virus pathogenesis```Let me guess - the best predictor of what an incubation time is what was the incubation time of related viruses. But this will be an immensely complicated paper that will do my head in.

Extracted statements

Rule-extracted, not adjudicated. The grade says what may be done with each one; read the document above before relying on any of them.

Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
Koonin doing mad stuff again... ```Prediction of the incubation period for COVID-19 and future virus disease outbreaks Ayal B Gussow; Noam Auslander; Yuri I Wolf; Eugene Koonin Research article Abstract: Background: A crucial factor in mitigating respiratory viral outbreaks is early determination of the durationof the incubation period and, accordingly, the required quarantine time for potentially exposed individuals.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external message body appears to be pasted content	asserts
The predictive approach described here can directly help in establishing the appropriate quarantinedurations and thus facilitate controlling future outbreaks.	quoted / not their view	quoted_external message body appears to be pasted content	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

quoted / not their view

quoted_external message body appears to be pasted content

asserts

The predictive approach described here can directly help in establishing the appropriate quarantinedurations and thus facilitate controlling future outbreaks.

quoted / not their view

quoted_external message body appears to be pasted content

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-08-24 04:10 Andrew Rambaut

Koonin doing mad stuff again... ```Prediction of the incubation period for COVID-19 and future virus disease outbreaks Ayal B Gussow; Noam Auslander; Yuri I Wolf; Eugene Koonin Research article Abstract: Background: A crucial factor in mitigating respiratory viral outbreaks is early determination of the durationof the incubation period and, accordingly, the required quarantine time for potentially exposed individuals. During the COVID-19 pandemic, optimization of quarantine regimes becomes paramount for public health, societal well-being and the global economy. However, the biological factors that determine the duration of the virus incubation period remain poorly understood.Results: We demonstrate a strong positive correlation between the length of the incubation period and diseaseseverity for a wide range of human pathogenic viruses. Using a machine learning approach, we develop a predictivemodel that accurately estimates, solely from several virus genome features such as the number of protein-codinggenes and the GC-content, the incubation time ranges for diverse human pathogenic RNA viruses including SARS-CoV-2. The predictive approach described here can directly help in establishing the appropriate quarantinedurations and thus facilitate controlling future outbreaks. Conclusions: Perhaps, surprisingly, incubation times of pathogenic RNA viruses can be accurately predicted solelyfrom generic features of virus genomes. Elucidation of the biological underpinnings of the connection between these features and disease progression can be expected to reveal key aspects of virus pathogenesis```Let me guess - the best predictor of what an incubation time is what was the incubation time of related viruses. But this will be an immensely complicated paper that will do my head in.
2020-08-24 04:11 Andrew Rambaut open

For BMC Biology so presumably on the way down the journal impact ladder

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