Chat message

Slack / Private Message Drop, p.134 [SLACK_000348] · slack_pm:msg:01372

Date: 2020-08-14 14:22
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Andrew Rambaut
speaker: Edward C. Holmes
Topics: Masks, lockdowns and NPIs

Recipients on this medium are inferred from channel membership, not per-message addressing.

The story here is that the outbreak in Victoria was due to an escape from hotel quarantine from return travellers.There's even an inquiry going on that the moment. I can see from the tree that you are suggesting that the virus wasin Australia prior to the current outbreak? That is certainly not the narrative here. I will need to ask about this. Toclarify, I'm not involved in any of the Australian analysis: it's being done by the public health people in each state. They've shut me out completely.

Extracted statements

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Statement	Grade	Attribution	Stance
The story here is that the outbreak in Victoria was due to an escape from hotel quarantine from return travellers.There's even an inquiry going on that the moment.	own voice, substantive	speaker_own	asserts

Statement

Grade

Attribution

Stance

The story here is that the outbreak in Victoria was due to an escape from hotel quarantine from return travellers.There's even an inquiry going on that the moment.

own voice, substantive

speaker_own

asserts

In context

A single line often inverts meaning once you see what it answers, so neighbouring messages are always shown.

2020-08-14 14:22 Edward C. Holmes

The story here is that the outbreak in Victoria was due to an escape from hotel quarantine from return travellers.There's even an inquiry going on that the moment. I can see from the tree that you are suggesting that the virus wasin Australia prior to the current outbreak? That is certainly not the narrative here. I will need to ask about this. Toclarify, I'm not involved in any of the Australian analysis: it's being done by the public health people in each state. They've shut me out completely.
2020-08-14 14:25 Edward C. Holmes open

Are we sure that the NextStrain tree is just massively subsampled, missing key background lineages?
2020-08-14 14:25 Kristian G. Andersen open

Yeah, that's what I thought too - returning travelers and quarantine issues. I should have clarified that the statementI shared is from the most recent Nextstrain narrative: https://nextstrain.org/narratives/ncov/sit-rep/2020-08-14.I'm not sure we can really conclude it's local acquired from this data, but I haven't looked at it directly (so I'm not sure whether I agree or disagree with the Nextstrain folks here...)
2020-08-14 14:26 Kristian G. Andersen open

And yes - my concern exactly relates to whether subsampling has taken out necessary context - combined with bias,of course.
2020-08-14 14:27 Edward C. Holmes open

I'm going to ask around about this. At face value it's either a massive fuck-up by the people analysing the data or it'sirresponsible subsampling from NextStrain.

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