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Slack / Private Message Drop, p.134 [SLACK_000348] · slack_pm:msg:01369

Date: 2020-08-11 04:03
Type: chat message · slack
recipient: Kristian G. Andersen, Robert F. Garry, Edward C. Holmes
speaker: Andrew Rambaut

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It has annoyed me that the only metric that statistically supports D614G fitter hypothesis is the basic fit to to the number of genomes - the issue is that there are so many confounding factors here. Erik's analysis does try to control for introductions by trying to focus only on local incidence but you have highlighted the issue that our method ofinferring introductions is likely biased by the same issues.

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2020-08-11 04:03 Andrew Rambaut

It has annoyed me that the only metric that statistically supports D614G fitter hypothesis is the basic fit to to the number of genomes - the issue is that there are so many confounding factors here. Erik's analysis does try to control for introductions by trying to focus only on local incidence but you have highlighted the issue that our method ofinferring introductions is likely biased by the same issues.
2020-08-11 04:04 Andrew Rambaut open

@Kristian Andersen I think most of the D lineages (after the very early ones) actually came from Spain in returningholiday makers. There was a large lineage A epidemic there (at the time unnoticed).

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