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1. 2020-06-12 15:53 Edward C. Holmes open
   Africa is also kicking off.
2. 2020-06-12 15:59 Kristian G. Andersen open
   > climatic conditions play a secondary role when the population is completely susceptible Maybe. This has been my thinking as well, but I'm not convinced. *Clearly* seasonality is incapable of halting transmission, but that's not the same as having no effect. What my concern for e.g., the US is that the question isn't whether "summer will slow down (or stop) transmission", but rather whether "we should expect the fall to be even worse". It's subtle - but I think it's critical that we don't assume that weather has no effect because it didn't stop (oreven slow down - although I'm not convinced it hasn't) the virus. Since Australia and NZ will head into winter with extremely limited transmission and seemingly good programs inplace, I'm less concerned. However, in a place like the US, the situation could turn from severe to catastrophic.
3. 2020-06-12 16:03 Edward C. Holmes open
   It would be much better if the virus were seasonal...that would make planning much easier. I think that it will likely become a seasonal endemic virus but thay may take a little time. Obviously, the public health authorities need to bevigilant throughout.
4. 2020-06-12 16:04 Edward C. Holmes open
   P.S. I didn't say it has no effect, but rather the huge number of susceptible hosts is more important at the moment.
5. 2020-06-12 16:05 Kristian G. Andersen
   Yup, agreed - 1% immunity and there's a pretty long way to go...
6. 2020-06-12 16:05 Kristian G. Andersen open
   (to herd immunity - but also to when we might actually see seasonal forcing)
7. 2020-06-12 16:05 Edward C. Holmes open
   And globally the pandemic is getting worse.
8. 2020-06-12 16:06 Kristian G. Andersen open
   Absolutely.

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