December 19, 2020 - Global USA Deb's daily comment: Coasts and Sunbelt continue to deteriorate. AZ, MS, FL, GA are not mitigating to the level of summer mitigation policies. There is deep confusion out there about vaccine volumes and clarity on the 1b and 2 categories to most efficiently vaccinate and potential to use the current supply to save lives over the next 30 days. The word is the ACIP was supplied modeling in October that showed no impact of vaccination on lives saved but it was modelled without taking into account a surge of cases and hospitalizations. IF this is true this needs to be addressed and remodeled and that new data supplied to the ACIP. Deb Another record broken: Covid-19 Live Updates: U.S. Sets Daily Record With Over 250,000 Cases 7. 8. 19 December 2020 The Northern Plains, Upper Mid-West, Rocky Mountain States and Heartland continue to improve decreasing test positivity, cases, hospitalizations, Strong vigilance messaging should continue to ensure decline through the upcoming Holiday season, Cases are rising again in Europe -- slide 6. The Coasts (80% of America) are now driving the increasing cases, hospitalizations and soon deaths. The rate of rise is deeply concerning. The top 10 states cases yesterday CA >49,000, TX 216,000, Fl 13,000, NY >12,000, TN > 10,000, PA =9,000, Ohio =9000, NC =8000, GA >8000, AZ >7500. These are all historic highs compared to the summer surge. Slide 5. The East and West Coast, Sunbelt, IN, OH, KY, TN surging cases will drive cases and hospitalizations over the next week stressing their hospital systems and and inpatient care : if the rate of rise can be blunted with messaging of vigilance this surge could be blunted with significant improvements seen in the New Year, States that mitigate late or with populations still gathering will continue to increase, Hospitalizations : there are now 37 States in the red (24) with CA, NJ, PA, CT, MD, GA, AL, MS, TN joining the red alert category and orange (13) zone for hospitalizations of COVID cases -- overall medical care deteriorates when states enter the red zone. Recommendations by CDC on who is immunized first will determine the future stability of the hospital systern and hospitalization rates - current plan will not change the pandemic impact an hospitals, It will be essential that monoclonal Ab and Remdesivir are used earlier and more consistently among vulnerable Americans There is insufficient vaccine or prioritization for vulnerable Americans to change hospitalization and fatalities trends in Dec-Jan : GOVs will need to understand that to change hospitalizations and fatalities they will need to immunized those most at risk for severe disease, WVA prioritization of essential workers over 50 and citizens over 65. The movement of the surge into populous states especially without adequate policies or without individual Americans mitigating will continue to drive hospitalizations and fatalities, many states do not have adequate public space mitigation policies and fatalities will continue averaging over 2600/day 19K,week, 75K/month at a minimum reaching over 340K by New Years and 410K by the end of January without calls for action at the Federal, State, and Local level and using PSAs to combat the COVID myths throughout the country and reenforcing messaging of the behaviors needed to blunt the pandemic, Multiple household gatherings continue to drive cases, Daily new confirmed COVID-19 cases Shown is the rolling 7-day average. The number of confirmed cases is bower than the number of actual cases: the main reasen for that is limited testing, LOG +) Add country 250,000 United States 200,000 sii 150,000 100,000 50,000 Germany United Kingdom Italy France 'al Spain Jan 23,2020 Mar ii Apr 30 Jun 19 Aug 6 Sepa? Dec 18,2020 ree: Johns Hexpking University CSSE COVID-19 Data - Last updated 1? December, 06:04 (London time) Cc er B® Jan 23,2020 2 () Dec 18,2020 al -- 75,100,000/1,700,000; USA --
December 23, 2020 - Global - 76,900,000; 1,700,000; USA - 18,200,000/321,700 Mayer Bowser of DC declared December 24, 2020 "Anthony S. Fauci, M.D. Day in Washington, DC: "Dr. Fauci has been a hero to our nation during this incredibly difficult year, working tirelessly to save lives and guide our nation's response to and recovery from the pandemic," said Mayor Bowser. "We are incredibly proud to count him among the many DC residents who are sacrificing so much to keep our communities healthy and safe. I issue this honor on behalf of all Washingtonians in gratitude and recognition of Dr. Fauci's service to our nation and our city." Qa Mayor Muriel Bowser @ In honor of Dr. Fauci's 80th birthday tomorrow, I proclaim Thursday, December 24, 2020, "Dr. Anthony S. Fauci Day" in Washington, DC. We are incredibly proud to count Dr. Fauci among the many DC residents who are sacrificing so much to keep our communities healthy and safe. r ---- a . a Z OP. " rockasalsore TH ANTIOONY © PALIT DAY wu "Surprise" tribute to me from the 1st responders at NIH and Montgomery County: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10Vi4mozXkpCjolo9phs0XoWpwoxSJ_oj/view?usp=sharing A group of activists from "the old days" surprised me with a surprise birthday party on Zoom in my office at 4:30 PM. Organized by Peter Staley and Janet Tobias. On the Zoom were: Gregg Gonsalves, Peter Staley, David Barr, Mark Harrington, Jim Eigo, James Kellerstein, Peggy Hamburg, Judy Auerbach, Wafaa El Sadr, Matthew Rose, Moises Agosto Had Zoom call last night with Vivek Murthy, Rochelle Walensky and David Kessler. Vivek wanted to discuss in more detail what our advice would be to Biden regarding the mutant virus in the UK. We discussed options of 1) shutting down travel from UK; 2) requiring pre-boarding testing from UK flights or even all flights from EU and South Africa or even all foreign flights; 3) also discussed post-landing strategy such as giving people BINAX tests to take home and test themselves after they arrive. Seems we will recommend at least pre-boarding testing, probably from all of EU and RSA. Surge continues in some areas and decreases in others. Deb's notes: There is a growing evidence showing aggressive public mitigation and clear messaging together does flattening the curve. When one compares TN to OH, NC, WVA, KY - surrounding states. TN fatalities/pop is 30-40% higher as states with more aggressive mitigation as it decreases the area under USA State = Texas a Elorida Tennessee New York & Pennsylvania New Jersey 'a Mirginia USATotal Total Cases 18,473,716 1,931,301 1,614,482 1,212,581 B23,573 B96,545 569,413 461,345 620,350 167,377 -- 4B.B47 ! 406,796 310,890 229,651 468,219 327,374 591 408 Aew Cassa I} aie 449,102 17000 Total Deaths 326,772 22,923 26,161 6,136 36,581 14,059 4,654 9,236 Tao 11,759 10,399 5,442 New Total Deaihe Recovered +1841 © 10,802,408 7,344,445 771,742 1,413,096 706,133 438,036 463,027 343,789 67,734 454,354 564,718 50,873 403,488 215,503 27,887 69,516 137,607 295,682 231,247 332,258 116,477 Active Cates 1,136,636 275,225 465,765 85,406 397,337 211,565 365,639 166,876 303,624 110,628 73,919 208,342 278,345 136,599 66,769 165,099 84,368 246,761 270,657 46,107 44,478 63,383 53,841 T1424 46,946 46,114 50,235 36,423 30,158 70,993 69,549 47,497 55,704 63,997 1,404 1,592 5e5 2,066 545, B40 1,105 1,706 57m BET Total Tests 25,860,404 14,483,012 14,728,047 5,340,916 23,474,668 6,918,202 3,050,663 7,271,494 12,520,975 4,024,800 6,419,622 7,295,525 4,688,292 3,559,695 946,123 5,288,642 10,239,836 6,991,516 3,880,863 Tests! 1M pop 236,620,567 714,860 755,726 499,513 665,736 Fa2,073 1,206,703 540,401 419,121 622,075 566,096 1,728,885 612,087 821,565 649,269 467,465 324,758 Fe5,S72 1,485,648 SOT 7a 632,327 Population 39,512,223 28,995,881 21,477,737 6,829,174 19,453,561 12,801,989 7,278,717 11,689,100 12,871,821 3,565,287 10,488,084 8,882,190 8,535,519 7,614,893 2,913,314 6,732,219 6,892,503 10,617,423 6,197,428 the curve - decreasing hospitalization and deaths per populations. When all is done excess mortality will be greater in states with less mitigation when normalized for population age and other multivariants. Deb 1. The Coasts (80% of the population) are now driving the increasing cases, hospitalizations and soon deaths. The East and West Coast, Sunbelt, IN, OH, KY, TN, WVA surging cases will drive cases and hospitalizations over the next week stressing their hospital systems and and inpatient care The Vaccine Before Christmas