Private channel session 1470
23 messages over 4h 54m, 2021-06-03 – 2021-06-03.
A “conversation” here is an activity session — a run of messages with under 60 minutes of silence inside it. The channel had no native conversation boundaries.
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This is it! The only debate would be to even bother to include one sentence to totally dismiss the even more extreme lab capture-manipulate-release.
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And, word-smithing needed but in the opening point out that it's a fatal logical flaw of the Lab Leak to only consider the Leak part, since at minimum it's a two step process.
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Also - keeping with a logical fallacies overall theme, perhaps note that most iterations of the lab leak are unfalsifiable- relman et al saying that lab leak could be a field worker getting asymptomatically infected in the field (and notseroconverting btw) fails the falsifiable test for a hypothesis - it can only be conjecture or speculation (tied in with theaccusation of cover-up part). This version of Lab Leak is indeed a similar to other unfalsifiable "theories," for ex. that eDim keeps an Invisible Pink Unicorn up his ass: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invisible_Pink_Unicorn
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If logical fallacies becomes the theme as @Andrew Rambaut suggests - then one could consider - *or not* - mentioning Umbrella Man=FCS
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Regardless of the specifics, I agree with Andrew that hitting them with logic is what we must do. The arguments have to be framed sans subtilty - like a Mike Tyson punch.
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Of course, False equivalence prime logical fallicy.
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https://en.vietnamplus.vn/man-jailed-for-storing-780-kg-of-african-pangolin-scales/202492.vnp
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/06/01/we-need-investigate-lab-leak-theory-without-inflaming-anti-asian-hate/ yeah
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here's the op-ed in case you don't have full access [shared file(s): Opinion _ How to investigate the lab-leak theory without inflaming anti-Asian hate - The Washington Post.pdf]
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@Kristian Andersen Gah! Not surprising and the effect on vaccination has been my biggest worry - also not surprised by that (unfortunately). I was discussing this with Duncan yesterday and it looks like we're starting to see growth in the US too, although it's still much too early to tell. B.1.1.7 is already in somewhat decline with P.1 coming up. So the main competition maybe between P.1 and B.1.617.2 and it's going to be very dependent on vaccination status.
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@Kristian Andersen Not sure why India cases peaked and dropped though. Do they have lock downs and NPIs?
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@Kristian Andersen Lots of seeds planted for growth: [shared file(s): image.png]
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@Kristian Andersen I'm not sure exactly what they did officially, but people freak out and that effectively is a lock down - plus, of course, localized 'herd' immunity (likely won't last more than 6-9 months).My concern around the vaccine in particular, is that while we have updated shots ready to go into production, but they're all based and B.1.351 and B.1.617.2 is a very different variant. As this continues in years to come, unless wemanage to somehow gain control over transmission, this is going to be a game of whack a mole that we can't win. It's concerning - and people don't get it since they're so done with this pandemic (which I get. Oh boy, do Iunderstand that...)
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I knew that when the first subheading was titled "A Group Called DRASTIC", it was going to be bad. But this - inVanity Fair - is just outright criminal. If I was Peter, I would sue immediately. [shared file(s): Screen Shot 2021-06-03at 8.08.08 AM.png]
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Andrew, totally agree on your first paragraph / outline - I'll work on it tonight. We might need to create a new document...
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@Kristian Andersen Libel: a published false statement that is damaging to a person's reputation; a written defamation.
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@Kristian Andersen Yeah - this is that.
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@Kristian Andersen Oh, just a bit.
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As for our opening paragraph, I was playing around with the "capture-release" vs "lab leak" stuff yesterday, making some FAQs to respond to the stuff around Tony's emails. What I think is key here - and maybe we could specifically mention it - is that a "lab leak" is insufficient in itself to explain the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. A scientific theory ofSARS-CoV-2 emergence needs to be able to account for _all_ facts surrounding the origin - the "lab leak" only provides a very small part of that, not being able to explain everything prior to the leak or the fact that this got goingin a wet market. I'll see if I can incorporate a single sentence to that effect as I go through - the beauty here is that "natural emergence" explains everything.
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And yes - to Bob's point, it must be testable... Otherwise, what are we even doing?
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In a strange plot twist, I think I might be somewhat of a hero to Fox Nation... I also go an interview request fromNewsMax this morning - I'll decline.https://www.foxnews.com/transcript/tucker-fauci-deserves-to-be-under-criminal-investigation
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Yeah - double agent - the most dangerous game a spy can play. [shared file(s): image.png]
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THis isgonna make an amazing movie [shared file(s): image.png]